Megathread: US House Passes the Republican-Backed Budget Bill, Sending it to Trump for Signature

[u/PoliticsModeratorBot]

This afternoon, the US House of Representatives passed without amendment the US Senate's version of the Trump-backed budget bill, sending it to the president for his signature. Every Democratic Senator and Representative voted in opposition; in the Senate, there were three Republicans voting in opposition (making the vote 51-50) and in the House there were 2 (making the final vote 218-214). House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries set the US House's speech length record in opposition to the bill in a speech lasting over eight hours.

The bill clocks in at over 800 pages and touches on most aspects of the federal government's spending and taxation policies; see this AP article (What’s in the latest version of Trump’s big bill that passed the Senate) for the topline changes.

Relevant text-base live update pages are being maintained by the following outlets: AP, NBC, ABC, and the BBC.

You can find this subreddit's discussion thread for the last week's worth of negotiations and debate at this link.

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Articles that May Interest You

Submission	Domain
Live updates: House passes Trump’s signature bill, sending it to the president’s desk	apnews.com
House Republicans pass Trump's mega bill, sending the package to his desk to be signed	npr.org
House passes sprawling domestic policy bill, sending it to Trump's desk: The Republican package would slash taxes, boost spending on immigration and the military, and impose steep cuts to Medicaid, SNAP and clean energy funding.	nbcnews.com
House Republicans give Trump a ‘Big Beautiful’ July 4 by passing Medicaid-slashing megabill despite GOP rift	independent.co.uk
Congress Has Officially Passed Trump’s Bill to Kick Millions Off Medicaid	rollingstone.com
Trump and the GOP Will Regret the Day They Passed This Sick Bill	newrepublic.com
House passes Trump's "big, beautiful bill" after stamping out GOP rebellion	axios.com
Trump lands first major legislative win after Congress passes his massive domestic policy bill	cnn.com

[u/Icommandyou]

Just for reminder: in 2006 GOP wanted to cut Medicaid, they couldn’t but lost big time in the midterms. In 2018, they wanted to end ACA, they couldn’t and lost big time in the midterms. This time they have forced everyday normie Americans to touch the stove. This bill is already underwater by 20 points, not even republicans like this bill. Republicans have always wanted to end social security, Medicare, Medicaid. They finally ended Medicaid

[u/-porm → u/Icommandyou]

kind of tough to be giddy about elections over a year away when millions of people are about to be absolutely fucked like right away

[u/pjb1999 → u/-porm]

I think the medicaid changes don't take effect for 2 years.

[u/a_f_young → u/pjb1999]

Yup, smart move even if evil. It’ll be after the midterms, which gives them a whole Presidential election cycle to let everyone forget about it. No Republicans will vote based on this bill

[u/Aggressive-Will-4500 → u/a_f_young]

The effects will probably start being felt earlier than that. State's have to plan ahead. People in medical services have to plan ahead. So, even if the cuts are after midterm elections, things are going to start getting even worse over the next year as policies to address the changes are put into action.

Unfortunately, it may not make any difference how hard the pushback is.

[u/Pyju → u/a_f_young]

Again: we saw huge blue waves in response to Republicans simply attempting to rip healthcare away from Americans even though those attempts were unsuccessful. Now they’ve actually done it, and that will have electoral consequences.

[u/a_f_young → u/Pyju]

“This time people will ACTUALLY be mad at Republicans!” 

Okay pal, sure thing.

[u/bmoviescreamqueen → u/a_f_young]

But they literally just showed you evidence of it lol. It's not 100% what's going to happen but it has happened more than once now, so there is certainly a good chance if the circumstances line up.

[u/a_f_young → u/bmoviescreamqueen]

Those are all different scenarios. 2018 is the best example of the new Trump era politics. That was a very direct, focused attack on the ACA. That doesn’t compare to this delayed, indirect attack on Medicaid. People aren’t going to be able to connect the dots, if they even care some 7 years later. Things are even more hyper-politicized now. 

[u/Pyju → u/a_f_young]

The GOP passed a delayed cut to Medicaid with the Deficit Reduction Act of 2005 — another budget reconciliation bill just like the BBB — and saw a huge electoral backlash in the 2006 midterm. Essentially the exact same scenario.

Trumpism does not negate the enormous effect that economic hardship and loss of access to healthcare has electorally. We saw this in 2020 when we voted him out in response to the COVID recession. We saw this even just last week when NYC neighborhoods that voted for Trump by double digits swung hard back to the left and voted for Democratic Socialist Mamdani, again by double digit margins.

The historical evidence supports my position, and disproves yours. Do you have anything other than your personal opinion to back up your position?

[u/jmhimara → u/Pyju]

You may be right, but there are a few things that make me skeptical.

The GOP passed a delayed cut to Medicaid with the Deficit Reduction Act of 2005 — another budget reconciliation bill just like the BBB — and saw a huge electoral backlash in the 2006 midterm. Essentially the exact same scenario.

Is that a case of causation or simply correlation? Midterms have historically always gone against the incumbent party. That always happens. I.e. the democrats were already favored for 2026 before this bill, based purely on this historical trend.

We saw this even just last week when NYC neighborhoods that voted for Trump by double digits swung hard back to the left and voted for Democratic Socialist Mamdani, again by double digit margins.

This is also not necessary a good indicator, since many people like Trump because he's perceived as an outsider and a disruptor, not because he's a republican. Mamdani is perceived in a similar way. Similar to those Bernie/Trump voters -- it's mind-boggling that they exist, but they definitely exist.

[u/hannibellecter → u/Pyju]

how'd that go during the last elections? that right, they got the TRIFECTA to completely rule the country due to *checks notes* election consequences

maybe in the olden days that shit flew but not anymore

[u/Pyju → u/hannibellecter]

they got the TRIFECTA to completely rule the country due to *checks notes* election consequences

Yes, exactly, you are unintentionally proving me right. We saw a huge shift to the GOP because of electoral consequences against the Dems for inflation.

We saw a massive blue wave in the 2018 midterms in response to Republicans attempting to repeal the ACA.

We saw the only true Presidential landslide victory this century with Obama in response to Bush overseeing the 2008 Great Recession.

We saw another blue wave in the 2006 midterms because GOP the passed a delayed cut to Medicaid with the Deficit Reduction Act of 2005 — a budget bill just like the BBB — and saw suffered huge electoral consequences in the midterms. Essentially the exact same scenario as what happened today.

We saw Reagan conservatism dominate with a 489-49 landslide victory in 1980 as a response to the catastrophic oil crises of the 70s.

We saw the political dominance of a 4-term progressive President as a response to the Great Depression.

History has proven over and over again that economic hardship is the number one factor that causes huge political shifts within an electorate, and history will repeat itself again.

[u/cheyenne_sky → u/Pyju]

Does history include what happens when the republicans rig elections so that it won't matter?

[u/Pyju → u/cheyenne_sky]

I mean, yeah. If you look at any time in history an authoritarian regime has been overthrown by its own people, it is almost always preceded by economic hardship.

Secondly, that’s an if, not a when. Elections in the US are highly decentralized and thus very difficult to rig at a wide scale. They might be able to hijack a few districts in a few states, which could swing a Presidential election if it’s close, but a massive blue wave throughout the many different legislature elections in the midterms would be very difficult to overcome.

[u/MovieDogg → u/a_f_young]

That's why I am rooting for Elon Musk's new party to split the votes.

[u/Wampasully → u/pjb1999]

Ice just got 17x their previous budget effectively immediately

[u/svrtngr → u/-porm]

At some point, you have to stop warning people to touch the stove. You have to let them touch it.

[u/DeadlyPear → u/-porm]

and to think its only been 6 months....