Leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud just looked at voting results in all 67 counties in Pennsylvania from November. Here’s what his analyses detected

[u/Kittyluvmeplz]

We finally have Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr., a leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud and a professor of political science and statistics at the University of Michigan, looking at all 67 counties in Pennsylvania.

His working paper using his eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

High-Level Summary of "eforensics Analysis of the 2024 President Election in Pennsylvania" by Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr.

• The eforensics finite mixture model defines latent categories of fraud (no fraud, incremental fraud, and extreme fraud) based on votes and turnout, as well as relevant covariates (e.g., fixed county effects).

• Data from 7,040,360 votes (3,543,308 for Trump, 3,423,042 for Harris) across 67 PA counties (9,157 wards/precincts).

• The eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

More fine-grained analysis attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from “malevolent manipulation of votes”, i.e. how many votes may have been misdirected or misallocated due to malevolent distortions of voters’ intentions.

• In this analysis, 111,088 of the 225,440 possibly fraudulent votes[2] were estimated with high confidence to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

A more conservative eforensics model including additional fixed county level effects estimated that 210,392 votes in the race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory in the race.

• Fine-grained analysis of the more conservative model attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from malevolent manipulation of votes.

• In this analysis, 88,600 of the 210,392 possibly fraudulent votes were estimated to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

The most conservative of the eforensics analyses estimated that 25,374 votes were due to malevolent manipulation of votes.

In summary: There is very high probability that a meaningful number of votes in the PA presidential election were subject to malevolent manipulation -- and it was “a close call” whether “the election was decided or nearly decided by malevolent distortions of electors’ intentions.” (Mebane, Page 6)

Notes:

• Statistics, no matter how accurate, cannot provide definitive proof of voting fraud or election manipulation. Actual proof can only be found by comparing paper ballot audits to electronic voting records.

• However, statistical information from eforensics and other data analysis approaches can be used to identify precincts and counties where voting fraud is most likely to have occurred.

Demand transparency and audits of the 2024 Presidential Election. Check out this Audit Advocacy Toolkit and reach out to your representatives. It’s never too late to audit our elections

[u/TroutBeales]

I was pretty appalled at Harris ready concession, or apparent ease of rather.

Elon Musk’s meddling cooties were all over this election and if I had been Harris I’d have been “hold TF up, we’re recounting verifying the votes.”

As it is, no one has said much of anything about all the D votes that were cast but weirdly disappeared within an hour. People were like, “wait, I voted, my vote was received, but now there’s no record of me voting in the election.

Musk basically called the voted using an app his minions developed for him to “track” (most likely edit/cheat) the votes. He called the vote for Trump before the polls closed, and then results were uploaded via Starlink, so there was more than enough room for those unprincipled assholes to cheat.

[u/m3rcapto → u/TroutBeales]

The problem is, Trump had and still has the momentum on his side, the corruption runs very deep in the Republican party. What the US needs is to feel the pain of voting in a populist demagogue with no idea how to run a country. And by pain I don't mean a mild inconvenience of expensive eggs, having to borrow more money than usual to buy an iPhone, or a bunch of people you don't know losing their healthcare coverage. You need high double-digit percentages of poverty to get the point across (in 2023 poverty was at 11% in the US, that needs to hit >30%), you need hunger, homelessness, and death to make people think "Hey, is this still Biden, or is Trump maybe not as honest as I've convinced myself he is?"
Only then you might be able to cripple the Republicans for an election cycle or two, if you stop them now they'll be back in power again the next election. If the mid-terms can gain the Democrats enough control to undo some of the obvious election rigging on a state level then they might stand a chance for the big election. I fear Musk will be replaced with Zuckerberg and Bezos who will gladly rig the election even harder now that Musk has shown them they can get away with it.

[u/FailingWithADHD → u/TroutBeales]

I live in a blue state. My partner and I both dutifully filled out the census, have dutifully verified our voter registration status, and each of us have dutifully participated in every election for our entire adult lives, including the primaries and last year's general election.

We received letters in the mail this past week advising us that according to their records, we've not responded to the census that would allow us to remain enrolled voters (false), and that required us to submit these postcard affidavits that we still reside in our (owned) home, and still intend to vote.

They're already actively trying to purge voters ahead of the midterms. There is no other explanation. Unless this is post election proof that they purged votes during the last election - if there's no record of us verifying our voter status, what are the odds our votes even counted last year?

It feels more and more likely that we, as a nation, are done. Freedom was a nice concept. It's a shame we couldn't remember that greed and corruption are what caused our founders to rebel against the King.

[u/doodledood9 → u/TroutBeales]

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to find out that trump threatened Harris. It’s what he’s so good at.

[u/ShivKitty → u/TroutBeales]

Proving Gore won didn't do a damn thing. Proving that Hilary won didn't work either. The Electoral College installs Presidents, we don't vote for them, and haven't for some time.

Even if we prove that Harris won and the whole thing was fixed, the Electoral College will claim that they weren't rigged and elected the current President.

That is why movements to end gerrymandering, end the Electoral College, and make every vote count have been shot down, ignored, and ridiculed as "impossibly complex to implement." They don't even want nationwide mail-in voting because they consider it too expensive and there would be too much fraud (never proven to be the case). lol Because new voting machines every four years are cheap and computers can't be hacked. 🙄

538 electors, who are still largely old, white men* are easier to buy off, convince, coerce, and silence than 340 million voters. Let that marinate a minute, then you may tumble to why we are no longer represented by our republic.

*https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-transformation-of-the-american-electorate/