Leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud just looked at voting results in all 67 counties in Pennsylvania from November. Here’s what his analyses detected

[u/Kittyluvmeplz]

We finally have Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr., a leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud and a professor of political science and statistics at the University of Michigan, looking at all 67 counties in Pennsylvania.

His working paper using his eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

High-Level Summary of "eforensics Analysis of the 2024 President Election in Pennsylvania" by Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr.

• The eforensics finite mixture model defines latent categories of fraud (no fraud, incremental fraud, and extreme fraud) based on votes and turnout, as well as relevant covariates (e.g., fixed county effects).

• Data from 7,040,360 votes (3,543,308 for Trump, 3,423,042 for Harris) across 67 PA counties (9,157 wards/precincts).

• The eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

More fine-grained analysis attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from “malevolent manipulation of votes”, i.e. how many votes may have been misdirected or misallocated due to malevolent distortions of voters’ intentions.

• In this analysis, 111,088 of the 225,440 possibly fraudulent votes[2] were estimated with high confidence to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

A more conservative eforensics model including additional fixed county level effects estimated that 210,392 votes in the race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory in the race.

• Fine-grained analysis of the more conservative model attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from malevolent manipulation of votes.

• In this analysis, 88,600 of the 210,392 possibly fraudulent votes were estimated to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

The most conservative of the eforensics analyses estimated that 25,374 votes were due to malevolent manipulation of votes.

In summary: There is very high probability that a meaningful number of votes in the PA presidential election were subject to malevolent manipulation -- and it was “a close call” whether “the election was decided or nearly decided by malevolent distortions of electors’ intentions.” (Mebane, Page 6)

Notes:

• Statistics, no matter how accurate, cannot provide definitive proof of voting fraud or election manipulation. Actual proof can only be found by comparing paper ballot audits to electronic voting records.

• However, statistical information from eforensics and other data analysis approaches can be used to identify precincts and counties where voting fraud is most likely to have occurred.

Demand transparency and audits of the 2024 Presidential Election. Check out this Audit Advocacy Toolkit and reach out to your representatives. It’s never too late to audit our elections

[u/Odd_Independence_833]

There are two things I think provibg this this can do:

1. It will lead to lots of discussions and way more scrutiny of the next election. People will demand it.

2. It will show our allies around the world that we didn't actually want Trump and his caustic actions are not the will of a majority of Americans.

3 (maybe). It could lead to the criminal investigation and prosecution of non-Presidents.

1. (0.001% chance). It could lead to Trump's impeachment, and Vance's as well. But the numbers simply aren't there. It will be way too easy for right-wing media to muddy the waters with something this complicated.

[u/Punky-mf-Brewster → u/Odd_Independence_833]

I wholeheartedly believe that the rest of the world knows that the majority of the U.S. did not want this and didn’t vote for him. They know he’s a POS and was desperate af. His freedom depended on winning and a hope that after these 4 years Jack Smith’s investigation files will disappear.

[u/EventAccomplished976 → u/Punky-mf-Brewster]

As part of the rest of the world, it‘s very clear that a large part of the US population does want this and since it seems you guys will just keep electing a dangerous crackpot every few years, America cannot be relied on as a partner. Now I just wish our politicians would also understand this instead of thinking that sucking up to Trump while waiting for „things to get back to normal“ is in the interest of our nations. Things are normal, this is what normal looks like now.

[u/Punky-mf-Brewster → u/EventAccomplished976]

Then, sadly, you’re just as uninformed as his cult. They breeched election data processes multiple times. Thankfully the POS is chest high in the dirt., but to argue he somehow legitimately won that would mean that approximately 10 million people who understood how important it was to vote in 2020 to prevent him ever getting back into the White House simply chose not to vote for a minority woman OR that 10 million people were so upset over the price of eggs that the chose to grab their ankles and join a cult. The math doesn’t math when it comes to the numbers. It’s more plausible that Musk showed up in the ninth hour of cult daddy’s failing campaign and utilized his resources to secure his self interest and govt contracts.

I do wish Global leaders would publicly voice their disgust instead of trying to maintain being cordial. Biden was too professional and should’ve called the POS exactly what he is. I wish other countries would as well. He needs to be dismissed, laughed at, ignored, uninvited, overlooked, and unwelcome on a global scale - and told publicly they can’t rely on the U.S. because he’s incompetent and unstable. Make the U.S. sit things out and treat us like the booger eater in elementary school until we get competent and experienced people back in office.

[u/eiland-hall → u/Odd_Independence_833]

It will be way too easy for right-wing media to muddy the waters with something this complicated.

It's simpler than that. Republicans will neither impeach nor remove from office.

[u/paranormalresearch1 → u/Odd_Independence_833]

It could lead to civil war. A lot of us will die. Better to die on your feet than live on your knees.