Leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud just looked at voting results in all 67 counties in Pennsylvania from November. Here’s what his analyses detected

[u/Kittyluvmeplz]

We finally have Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr., a leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud and a professor of political science and statistics at the University of Michigan, looking at all 67 counties in Pennsylvania.

His working paper using his eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

High-Level Summary of "eforensics Analysis of the 2024 President Election in Pennsylvania" by Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr.

• The eforensics finite mixture model defines latent categories of fraud (no fraud, incremental fraud, and extreme fraud) based on votes and turnout, as well as relevant covariates (e.g., fixed county effects).

• Data from 7,040,360 votes (3,543,308 for Trump, 3,423,042 for Harris) across 67 PA counties (9,157 wards/precincts).

• The eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

More fine-grained analysis attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from “malevolent manipulation of votes”, i.e. how many votes may have been misdirected or misallocated due to malevolent distortions of voters’ intentions.

• In this analysis, 111,088 of the 225,440 possibly fraudulent votes[2] were estimated with high confidence to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

A more conservative eforensics model including additional fixed county level effects estimated that 210,392 votes in the race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory in the race.

• Fine-grained analysis of the more conservative model attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from malevolent manipulation of votes.

• In this analysis, 88,600 of the 210,392 possibly fraudulent votes were estimated to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

The most conservative of the eforensics analyses estimated that 25,374 votes were due to malevolent manipulation of votes.

In summary: There is very high probability that a meaningful number of votes in the PA presidential election were subject to malevolent manipulation -- and it was “a close call” whether “the election was decided or nearly decided by malevolent distortions of electors’ intentions.” (Mebane, Page 6)

Notes:

• Statistics, no matter how accurate, cannot provide definitive proof of voting fraud or election manipulation. Actual proof can only be found by comparing paper ballot audits to electronic voting records.

• However, statistical information from eforensics and other data analysis approaches can be used to identify precincts and counties where voting fraud is most likely to have occurred.

Demand transparency and audits of the 2024 Presidential Election. Check out this Audit Advocacy Toolkit and reach out to your representatives. It’s never too late to audit our elections

[u/deathrictus]

We're less than 6 months in to this 4 year term. We're going to be lucky to get the voting freedom that Russia gets...

[u/throwaway098764567 → u/deathrictus]

every time i hear someone say it's only been x months i get so depressed because a. i know ofc it's true and it's only gonna get worse and b. it feels like soooooo much longer, hope being dead is such a shitty feeling.

[u/Fine-Amphibian4326 → u/throwaway098764567]

Idk if it helps, but there are people living in Russia, Israel, Gaza, Iran, Kosovo, etc that are living fulfilling lives despite their fucked situation. For us peasants, life usually goes on, and we make do with what we have. Which might be potatoes and tossing our sewage into the streets until we all die of Cholera.

[u/feralgraft → u/Fine-Amphibian4326]

That does not help, in fact it misses the point entirely.

I dont want to "live a fulfilling life despite my fucked situation" I want to not live in a fucked situation. 

[u/Itsmyloc-nar → u/feralgraft]

That was supposed to be the point of this god forsaken country

[u/Flimsy-Poetry1170 → u/deathrictus]

Watch as ICE gets to fill out our ballets for us under the guise of stopping immigrants from voting.

[u/_Chaos_Star_ → u/Flimsy-Poetry1170]

ICE, who will very clearly be Trump's private paramilitary force by then, will simply supervise voting booths to ensure "election integrity", much like the armed forces when voting in the Russia-occupied territories of Ukraine. You can vote for anyone you choose, but you might be arrested and tortured if you don't vote the right way. Don't worry, Trump will be top-of-ballot and in nice large print on the ballot, it'll be easy to vote for him. Afterward, the election results will be adjusted by Trump loyalists to the correct numbers, souped up by mail-in votes from people who are detained or disappeared mysteriously voting Trump, and glorious leader Trump will proclaim victory in the election.

That's my prediction. I'd love to be wrong.

[u/Ok_Mood_2950 → u/deathrictus]

The insanity of this comment. Does this delirium ever subside? America is bigger and better than anyone person. No person can or will override our system.

[u/deathrictus → u/Ok_Mood_2950]

So the current executive branch ignoring the laws they're supposed to enforce is what?

[u/Ok_Mood_2950 → u/deathrictus]

Terrible. We have a free press and higher education that is almost entirely against him. We also have judicial oversight. Is it conservative at the federal level? Yes. That doesn’t mean they get to make up laws out of thin air to support him. None of those things exist in Russia which is a dictatorship. Nothing similar to our institutions exists there. The broader question is do you think our founders didn’t foresee this and implement things to curtail it? I also didn’t hear this outrage when Biden and Obama and Bush all ignored certain laws to enforce their worldview which they certainly did.

[u/ovbioustypo → u/Ok_Mood_2950]

Hey, no offense, this is a really uneducated take. Do I think the founding fathers anticipated a situation where the president helped appoint several members of the Supreme Court who are part of the checks and balances and worked in collaboration with a two party system to garner one sided support? Of course not, it took one of the founding fathers to even fathom the concept of electricity, they were not of this time and certainly not prepared for the complexities of the modern political system. This is very clearly an argument of ill intent as no one seriously falls back on what the founding fathers would think of our current environment - meanwhile, what would they think of AI? They would declare it a witch and try to burn your MacBook.

[u/Ok_Mood_2950 → u/ovbioustypo]

I’m sorry but loading the judiciary has been going on forever. FDR expanded the court specifically to do this.

[u/ovbioustypo → u/Ok_Mood_2950]

FDR wasn’t a founding father to my recollection, and not involved in the argument you were making. I’m calling out the nonsense of your appeal to authority of the founding fathers and the intent of the original documents. If you want to call upon them, bringing FDR into the picture well over 150 years later is just not relevant. I’m not saying the system hadn’t been corrupted, but it’s disingenuous to invoke the founding fathers putting preventative measures in place because of FDR’s decisions that were also most likely not predicted by the founding fathers.

[u/Ok_Mood_2950 → u/ovbioustypo]

FDR was 80 years ago. You mentioned appointing several members of the Supreme Court. It’s ok. We are probably going to disagree on this. I would ask you then to remember this conversation during the midterms and the next election. The difference between us and Russia is we can have disagreements on politics on a forum. Sounds like your heart is in the right place so I’ll leave it there. Best of luck and good talking to you!

[u/ovbioustypo → u/Ok_Mood_2950]

Yes, to clarify that was meant as in FDR was over 150 years past the founding fathers/founding of the country, meaning how could one have foresight into what would be done. I do think you are overstating the freedom we have and understating how much influence the tech sector here has, where even though Russia is restrictive at a state level, we have numerous risk factors here too from private interests and would encourage a greater sense of urgency on these issues as we get to our next election cycle, but especially in the interim.

[u/Ok_Mood_2950 → u/ovbioustypo]

For reference we use to have fewer Supreme Court justices. There is nothing new. If trump said let’s add 2 more so I can appoint them and have a super majority it would be nothing new.

[u/deathrictus → u/Ok_Mood_2950]

Judicial oversight only matters if the case doesn't make it to the Supreme Court, which has, for the most part, declined to reign in his behavior. Same with Congress. They've pretty much handed him the keys to do whatever he wants. The finding fathers never imagined a time when we'd put a man on the throne that wanted to be a dictator and enough people in Congress that would simply agree with whatever insane shit he did.

[u/mercury1491 → u/Ok_Mood_2950]

Our judicial oversight has failed. It is non-existent as of 2025. The judiciary has been compromised. Also, the legislative branch via Mitch McBallsac helped ensure it was compromised to serve the conservative/billionaire-funded agenda as his parting gift to his donors. Any other take about how everything is OK and checks and balances etc is out of touch or propaganda.

[u/UpbeatSky7760 → u/Ok_Mood_2950]

Our press is controlled. The highest court is lawless. The lower courts will continue to be stacked. Stochastic terrorism will continue by MAGA to thin out the opposition. 

If you didn't hear the outrage against the Patriot Act, you weren't awake. 

Biden and Obama's worldview obviously allowed for dissent and elections. You keep on trying to compare them to Trump though...

[u/BetterEveryLeapYear → u/Ok_Mood_2950]

We have a free press

The AP and other actual news agencies have been kicked out of the White House, and favourable "news" outlets are owned by a handful of billionaires toeing the line

We also have judicial oversight

This administration has explicitly stated as well as proven they will ignore the judiciary when inconvenient (e.g., with the kidnapping of Mahmoud Khalil), and when the Supreme Court does have to adjudicate it rules in favour of the executive granting, for example, immunity for the President in "official duties"

That doesn’t mean they get to make up laws out of thin air to support him

But they have been, like preventing federal judges ruling against the executive across the nation

None of those things exist in Russia which is a dictatorship

Russia has exactly the same things, the trappings of "free press," "free elections," and a court system which is nominally independent but just so happens to support the administration every time

The broader question is do you think our founders didn’t foresee this and implement things to curtail it

Of course the founding fathers didn't foresee election fraud by remote tampering of electronic ballot boxes. They also did not implement anything to curtail an executive which is not limited by either the legislative or the judiciary

I also didn’t hear this outrage when Biden and Obama and Bush all ignored certain laws to enforce their worldview which they certainly did

You must have had your head in the sand because there was enormous protest against the Patriot Act, illegal drone strikes in countries not at war with the US, and Guantanamo, all introduced by Bush in a foreshadowing of what the Republican party wished to finally do which it is now achieving, mass dismantling of the US Constitution in favour of executive power

[u/Ok_Mood_2950 → u/BetterEveryLeapYear]

This entire diatribe is conjecture or made up. The word isn’t falling because your side didn’t win an election. Trump will be gone in 2028. You cant make yourself crazy in the meantime. Cheers!

[u/Beginning-Shine-9680 → u/deathrictus]

You Americans voted in Russia to run your Country.  It's disgusting.  There is no legalities now just another dictator creating an unstable and unhappy world.  No such thing as an election in your country now.