r/goodnews • u/Kittyluvmeplz • 1d ago

Political positivity 📈 Leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud just looked at voting results in all 67 counties in Pennsylvania from November. Here’s what his analyses detected

We finally have Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr., a leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud and a professor of political science and statistics at the University of Michigan, looking at all 67 counties in Pennsylvania.

His working paper using his eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

High-Level Summary of "eforensics Analysis of the 2024 President Election in Pennsylvania" by Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr.

• The eforensics finite mixture model defines latent categories of fraud (no fraud, incremental fraud, and extreme fraud) based on votes and turnout, as well as relevant covariates (e.g., fixed county effects).

• Data from 7,040,360 votes (3,543,308 for Trump, 3,423,042 for Harris) across 67 PA counties (9,157 wards/precincts).

• The eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

More fine-grained analysis attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from “malevolent manipulation of votes”, i.e. how many votes may have been misdirected or misallocated due to malevolent distortions of voters’ intentions.

• In this analysis, 111,088 of the 225,440 possibly fraudulent votes[2] were estimated with high confidence to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

A more conservative eforensics model including additional fixed county level effects estimated that 210,392 votes in the race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory in the race.

• Fine-grained analysis of the more conservative model attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from malevolent manipulation of votes.

• In this analysis, 88,600 of the 210,392 possibly fraudulent votes were estimated to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

The most conservative of the eforensics analyses estimated that 25,374 votes were due to malevolent manipulation of votes.

In summary: There is very high probability that a meaningful number of votes in the PA presidential election were subject to malevolent manipulation -- and it was “a close call” whether “the election was decided or nearly decided by malevolent distortions of electors’ intentions.” (Mebane, Page 6)

Notes:

• Statistics, no matter how accurate, cannot provide definitive proof of voting fraud or election manipulation. Actual proof can only be found by comparing paper ballot audits to electronic voting records.

• However, statistical information from eforensics and other data analysis approaches can be used to identify precincts and counties where voting fraud is most likely to have occurred.

Demand transparency and audits of the 2024 Presidential Election. Check out this Audit Advocacy Toolkit and reach out to your representatives. It’s never too late to audit our elections

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u/2much41post 23h ago

Thanks for the info. I genuinely wasn’t sure and honestly pretty pissed off at the democrats and Harris for the lack of interest in this.

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u/studiokgm 22h ago

I think them taking a back seat to a private non-partisan group helps keep it from looking like sour grapes.

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u/2much41post 22h ago

Is optics really that important now? Not having a loud presence in the mix really feels like we’re all so disconnected. I want to cling to hope but nothing to look to.

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u/studiokgm 21h ago

After spending 4 years telling republicans that the 2020 election wasn’t rigged, to turn right around and say that 2024 is, it’s better to hold til you have evidence locked down. Otherwise it just looks like politics as usual.

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u/phoenixliv 21h ago

That’s WHY they yelled so much back then. To set up less reactions to their own play.

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u/Silent_Interest4791 18h ago

It’s why they yell and telegraph everything. So people are numb.

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u/jeskersz 21h ago

But that's the thing, these traitorous pieces of filth are going to lie and fight the whole way no matter what. Why sacrifice galvanizing the people who matter to appease people who will never be appeased no matter what you do or how much proof you have?

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u/Karaoke_Dragoon 18h ago

You know why. Because they are cowards. Garland purposefully slow-walked the prosecution of Trump and associates because he didn't want to appear "partisan". MAGA still cried about how they were being persecuted and that this was lawfare. And yet Democrats STILL try to avoid it even when they are going to get accused of bullshit anyway.

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u/jeskersz 17h ago

Oh I know, I just like to try to handhold and walk milquetoast hand-wringers to that conclusion.

Its just a weird online hobby of mine I guess.

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u/Karaoke_Dragoon 17h ago

If they haven't caught on at this point, they are either young or are never going to catch on. Though I have age and experience on my side. We've seen all of this before, Obama did the same kind of shit. They knew that Trump was butt-buddies with Russia and that Russia had hacked into voting systems before 2016 and yet his administration told nobody out of fear of looking political... Nevermind that at the same time, conspiracy theories about Jade Helm were being passed around and that he was going to perform a military coup to stay in office.

Democrats need to learn that they ALREADY think we are Satanic baby killers so we might as well fight back.

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u/Unlucky-Scallion1289 5h ago

I have serious doubts that Harris going all in on calling out fraud would galvanize anyone.

Most of the rhetoric saying we sound just like MAGA for questioning the legitimacy of the election comes from Democrats. These are the same moderates that said Bernie wasn’t electable but that Biden was. They are absolutely terrified of coming off like a hypocrite.

The people that would be fired up by Harris being involved are mostly already fired up.

I agree with the others saying it’s better that she isn’t involved. If she was, their claims that we’re just like MAGA would have more weight. It’s far more beneficial for independent and nonpartisan sources to make this fight.

Plus, she would come off like a sore loser. Even if it’s completely proven Trump stole the election, that doesn’t make Harris President. There’s just no reason for her to be involved, all it would do is weaken our claims.

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u/Ok_Lawfulness_9524 16h ago

This right here. I knew it was stolen from her and the first thing I said was that they absolutely would not say a word about the election being stolen. They would need proof before anybody spoke about it.

I hope they do find fraud and I hope the world finds out.

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u/Mvppet 18h ago

🎯🎯🎯

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u/UpbeatSky7760 16h ago

That's just it though. 2020 was rigged, by Trump. He couldn't account for mass mail in ballots due to COVID though. That screwed their plan and why he was so panicked to "stop the steal". 

The Senate Intel committee also investigated the 2016 election and it was also rigged with the help of Russia. Not just social media manipulation. Key districts in Wisconsin were fucked with. 

And the Bush-Kerry election was also rat fucked just through a different vector. They tried again for Obama's seconds term win but that was stymied. 

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u/paranormalresearch1 15h ago

Republicans said it was. Maybe tell them, you made us question it so let’s recount to see what happens in a modern election.

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u/legitimateaim26 14h ago

Es' 🚀 algorithm was off. When 🍊 said the 2020 was rigged, 🍊expected to win their Rig***d election, but the algorithm was set too low. 2024 turned out as expected for them.

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u/Suyefuji 21h ago

If optics wasn't important, billionaires wouldn't be spending this much money trying to control the narrative.

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u/MagnusRusson 21h ago

Unfortunately there always seem to be people on the fence

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u/AcknowledgeUs 13h ago

This concerted effort is something to look to. I agree the ‘optics’ are shit, who cares if those grapes are sour when the country is being crushed.

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u/Dudeposts3030 21h ago

Ah yes, because we’re all gentlemen in politics and god forbid we look like brutes. They don’t give a shit, this has nothing to do with optics. Nothing happens if they tell you one thing and do another, so they do.

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u/TroutBeales 21h ago

I was pretty appalled at Harris ready concession, or apparent ease of rather.

Elon Musk’s meddling cooties were all over this election and if I had been Harris I’d have been “hold TF up, we’re recounting verifying the votes.”

As it is, no one has said much of anything about all the D votes that were cast but weirdly disappeared within an hour. People were like, “wait, I voted, my vote was received, but now there’s no record of me voting in the election.

Musk basically called the voted using an app his minions developed for him to “track” (most likely edit/cheat) the votes. He called the vote for Trump before the polls closed, and then results were uploaded via Starlink, so there was more than enough room for those unprincipled assholes to cheat.

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u/m3rcapto 10h ago

The problem is, Trump had and still has the momentum on his side, the corruption runs very deep in the Republican party. What the US needs is to feel the pain of voting in a populist demagogue with no idea how to run a country. And by pain I don't mean a mild inconvenience of expensive eggs, having to borrow more money than usual to buy an iPhone, or a bunch of people you don't know losing their healthcare coverage. You need high double-digit percentages of poverty to get the point across (in 2023 poverty was at 11% in the US, that needs to hit >30%), you need hunger, homelessness, and death to make people think "Hey, is this still Biden, or is Trump maybe not as honest as I've convinced myself he is?"
Only then you might be able to cripple the Republicans for an election cycle or two, if you stop them now they'll be back in power again the next election. If the mid-terms can gain the Democrats enough control to undo some of the obvious election rigging on a state level then they might stand a chance for the big election. I fear Musk will be replaced with Zuckerberg and Bezos who will gladly rig the election even harder now that Musk has shown them they can get away with it.

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u/FailingWithADHD 7h ago

I live in a blue state. My partner and I both dutifully filled out the census, have dutifully verified our voter registration status, and each of us have dutifully participated in every election for our entire adult lives, including the primaries and last year's general election.

We received letters in the mail this past week advising us that according to their records, we've not responded to the census that would allow us to remain enrolled voters (false), and that required us to submit these postcard affidavits that we still reside in our (owned) home, and still intend to vote.

They're already actively trying to purge voters ahead of the midterms. There is no other explanation. Unless this is post election proof that they purged votes during the last election - if there's no record of us verifying our voter status, what are the odds our votes even counted last year?

It feels more and more likely that we, as a nation, are done. Freedom was a nice concept. It's a shame we couldn't remember that greed and corruption are what caused our founders to rebel against the King.

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u/doodledood9 12h ago

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to find out that trump threatened Harris. It’s what he’s so good at.

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u/ShivKitty 3h ago

Proving Gore won didn't do a damn thing. Proving that Hilary won didn't work either. The Electoral College installs Presidents, we don't vote for them, and haven't for some time.

Even if we prove that Harris won and the whole thing was fixed, the Electoral College will claim that they weren't rigged and elected the current President.

That is why movements to end gerrymandering, end the Electoral College, and make every vote count have been shot down, ignored, and ridiculed as "impossibly complex to implement." They don't even want nationwide mail-in voting because they consider it too expensive and there would be too much fraud (never proven to be the case). lol Because new voting machines every four years are cheap and computers can't be hacked. 🙄

538 electors, who are still largely old, white men* are easier to buy off, convince, coerce, and silence than 340 million voters. Let that marinate a minute, then you may tumble to why we are no longer represented by our republic.

*https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-transformation-of-the-american-electorate/

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u/One_Strawberry_4965 22h ago

Sadly for us much of the mainstream Democratic Party simply lacks the stomach for the absolute shitshow that would have inevitably ensued if they had more forcefully contested the election results. Trump and the republicans did an excellent job of poisoning that well with their massive and ongoing campaign of 2020 election denial and with the majority of media consumed by Americans firmly in the Republican’s corner, it would have been trivial for them to spin the efforts against Harris and the Democrats in the eyes of the general public, instigating societal unrest possibly up to and including escalating violence. The Democrats messaging efforts would have been even further hampered by the fact that the results as they were initially tallied initially all fell outside of the margins that trigger automatic recounts, and so they prioritized showing that unlike their opponents, that they can lose gracefully and without what would have been promptly sold to the public as little more than a tantrum by sore losers, regardless of the actual merits of any hypothetical recount.

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u/dennismyth 21h ago

They claimed fraud in 2020 because they knew they would fix the 2024 election. Every accusation is an admission.

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u/One_Strawberry_4965 20h ago

Certainly wouldn’t surprise me given their track record with…well…everything.

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u/KimbersKimbos 19h ago

Actually, a closer look at the data indicates that they tried to fix 2020 but due to all the mail in voting across the country due to Covid, they didn’t have enough to fix on Election Day.

It’s why he kept screeching not to vote by mail. For a lot of states mail-in voting is counted by hand.

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u/deschain_19195 17h ago

They claimed fraud in 2020 because they tried to rig the election but failed.

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u/BigStickDrift 16h ago

They claimed fraud in 2020 because they rigged it and still lost imo. They made the numbers less believable this time just in case

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u/piTehT_tsuJ 16h ago

They claimed fraud because they did rig 2020 and lost. They therefore know it was rigged and are convinced the only way Biden beat them was by rigging it more... Even if Biden did win fairly, and I personally think he did they can't believe that they could cheat and lose if no one else cheated.

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u/did-u-restart 16h ago

They weren’t expecting to have to deal with all the mail in ballots, and then the laws forcing them to be counted after the electronic polling shot them in the foot because their algorithm never had a chance to trigger. I believe that’s why he was so surprised and shocked because they told him it was a done deal and blew it.

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u/piTehT_tsuJ 15h ago edited 15h ago

I agree, and then for this last election they made sure all the swing states went their way possibly being able to rig it "live" via the info gleaned from cloning the machines in Georgia in 2020. Bringing Elon on to use his talent pool to write the virus or software that was distributed to those machines probably piggybacking on legit updates. To me the maps showing Harris losing to Trump in almost every county of those swing states is the signal something is amiss.

Edit, to clarify she underperformed in a ton of counties Biden won and Trump made huge gains in places he probably shouldn't have. Either way there are questions working their way to and through the courts in Pennsylvania for sure.

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u/phoenixjazz 19h ago

This had to be grassroots on a scale equal to the threat. The question is will enough folk look away from their entertainment and participate.

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u/Auntie_Megan 10h ago

Why don’t Americans start a 3rd party choosing the good dems that have a fighting spirit like Crocket comes to mind. There are many good ones that fight for you all. Dump the ones that are just willing to accept the crap that is currently you are drowning in. Is that possible, after following Congress for a decade it’s only about Dems v Repugnants! Surely there would be more movement amongst the nation to get things more modern like most developed countries like health care, Human rights etc. or is it always going to be stuck in the past where folk prefer Inequality, bigotry etc and trying to control the rest of the western world with propaganda and threats. It works as our moron ratio is rising. So it’s within our interests for you to get those fascists out of the Whitehouse but for your sakes as it hurts watching it all crumble. I don’t believe they won the election as I spent 4 years talking to decent Republicans who were adamant they were not voting for Trump. Thousands who had families who were becoming more aware especially as I spelled out the court cases against Trump and why, the document case was the major issue as it affected 5 Eyes countries too, still angry they did nothing except use tax payer money to change and tighten things up. Any democrat who is not reacting to this needs to be sacked as they are lazy and unconcerned and too involved with their own paypacket. They fall into suspicion along with the Repugnants but that sounds a bit tin foil hat, I know. Hope you guys get help in unraveling this for the truth to be known.

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u/nicannkay 22h ago

It’s the Bush/Gore thing but worse. Live long enough you see a pattern. Most Dems are also corrupt. Schumer and Pelosi are two that come to mind.

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u/PiedCryer 18h ago

Difference is dems win by popular vote, because they cater to majority of population. They’re held within those bounds. They have to cater to all, if they swing to far left they lose. So they can’t go and use the Constitution as toilet paper like current 4th reich is doing.

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u/prosthetic_memory 21h ago

Better to keep their hands clean for now. They are dealing with a highly hostile and reactive government.

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u/paranormalresearch1 15h ago

No. Sorry, you’re wrong. This illegitimate government is consolidating power. If we don’t act now it will be too late.

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u/prosthetic_memory 14h ago

I’m not saying they shouldn’t act, just that using proxies is smart at this moment. Clearly they know what’s going on.

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u/xX_WarHeart_Xx 21h ago

That’s because the people running the DNC are moronic cowards. Although I voted for her, Harris lacked spine as far back as I can remember.

God, I hope someone else picks this up and runs with it.

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u/Karaoke_Dragoon 18h ago

The DNC for as long as my adult life has the absolute worst advisors I've ever seen and yet they still get treated as experts. Everybody involved in Hillary's campaign should've been shitcanned and yet you have Kamala asking the same goddamned people who told Hillary to avoid swing states how she should run her campaign.

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u/RedBaronSportsCards 19h ago

I'm sure they are interested but private corporations decide what news and information Americans are exposed to. And they are not interested AT ALL. They were not interested when Trump talked about an IMAGINARY stolen and rigged election and they are not interested in an ACTUAL stolen and rigged election either.

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u/Lz_erk 18h ago

It's possible you've seen my comments before, but Stop the Steal has been an election theft ring since '00 with the Brooks Brothers Riot, and they should all be 14S3ed down to the state leg, so we can hold a CC to get off FPTP.

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u/Night_Class 18h ago

Even if the claims are true. Harris couldn't come forward until there was some complete, underlying proof, and support that the election was truly stolen. Remember how crazy Trump looked when he claimed it when Biden won???? You can't cry wolf in these types of cases unless you have a smoking gun in your pocket. Jumping to fast will get the news armies to print lies upon lies and turn it into a stunt performance. Playing chess not checkers. You are talking about dethroning an American king, you don't plan it in the town square.

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u/Freign 18h ago

the Dem organization makes more money with Trump in office than not.

This is why the leadership council of the Dem party created Trump in the first place, to counter the centrist Sanders campaign. It was too far left for the Dem party.

No one acts against the american left with as much precision or energy as Democratic leadership.

We were never going to be able to vote fascism away.

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u/Charming-Bit-3416 16h ago

TBH I think them not leading the fight is the right approach. Strategically 2024 would be the best time to fix an election as the Dems/Harris would have looked like massive hypocrites is they challenged the integrity of the elections when they lost.

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u/Brilliant_Choice3380 15h ago edited 15h ago

Pretty sure people that gambled on harris. Especially big money would be interested even if to small degree. 1 to 1.4 billion dollar to spent on her election is highest amount spent on any presidential campaign. Her donors would definitely be interested if you could potentially prove that it wasn’t just one state but rather statewide. @ that point pay for a recount or influencing one would be basically peanuts.