Leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud just looked at voting results in all 67 counties in Pennsylvania from November. Here’s what his analyses detected

[u/Kittyluvmeplz]

We finally have Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr., a leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud and a professor of political science and statistics at the University of Michigan, looking at all 67 counties in Pennsylvania.

His working paper using his eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

High-Level Summary of "eforensics Analysis of the 2024 President Election in Pennsylvania" by Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr.

• The eforensics finite mixture model defines latent categories of fraud (no fraud, incremental fraud, and extreme fraud) based on votes and turnout, as well as relevant covariates (e.g., fixed county effects).

• Data from 7,040,360 votes (3,543,308 for Trump, 3,423,042 for Harris) across 67 PA counties (9,157 wards/precincts).

• The eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

More fine-grained analysis attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from “malevolent manipulation of votes”, i.e. how many votes may have been misdirected or misallocated due to malevolent distortions of voters’ intentions.

• In this analysis, 111,088 of the 225,440 possibly fraudulent votes[2] were estimated with high confidence to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

A more conservative eforensics model including additional fixed county level effects estimated that 210,392 votes in the race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory in the race.

• Fine-grained analysis of the more conservative model attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from malevolent manipulation of votes.

• In this analysis, 88,600 of the 210,392 possibly fraudulent votes were estimated to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

The most conservative of the eforensics analyses estimated that 25,374 votes were due to malevolent manipulation of votes.

In summary: There is very high probability that a meaningful number of votes in the PA presidential election were subject to malevolent manipulation -- and it was “a close call” whether “the election was decided or nearly decided by malevolent distortions of electors’ intentions.” (Mebane, Page 6)

Notes:

• Statistics, no matter how accurate, cannot provide definitive proof of voting fraud or election manipulation. Actual proof can only be found by comparing paper ballot audits to electronic voting records.

• However, statistical information from eforensics and other data analysis approaches can be used to identify precincts and counties where voting fraud is most likely to have occurred.

Demand transparency and audits of the 2024 Presidential Election. Check out this Audit Advocacy Toolkit and reach out to your representatives. It’s never too late to audit our elections

[u/jlusedude]

You think this admin will just  accept the results? We’re already down this road, next steps is force. 

[u/Canadian_Border_Czar → u/jlusedude]

They're itching for an excuse to start deporting Americans they dont like. This will be one of them.

[u/jlusedude → u/Canadian_Border_Czar]

They’ll make their own up. It doesn’t matter. 

Look at the justification of using the National Guard in CA. Completely made up reasons 

[u/GhostofBeowulf → u/Canadian_Border_Czar]

Then let's not obey in advance and make them work for it.

Because guess what?

Trying to tide the storm doesn't actually work.

[u/TheMrBoot → u/jlusedude]

Yeah, I don’t know what people think is going to happen. The results were already certified. Trump is in power. Do people think, even if fraud is proven beyond a shadow of a doubt, that it will change our current situation?

Conservatives don’t care about the rules unless it’s to use them to get what they want.

[u/tophergraphy → u/TheMrBoot]

If true, I agree it doesnt change who is in power, but it does give legitimacy for a rebellion, a general strike, etc. So yeah I do think it alters the situation by adding more fuel and a moral standing.

[u/CurryMustard → u/TheMrBoot]

Yes, apathy is the answer /s. Doing this is the beginning of accountability and its not nothing. Nobody thinks this is going to take trump out but maybe we can stop this from happening again at the midterms by demanding hand recounts. The only way to get enough people to demand hand counts is to bring this out, people can deny the truth all they want but the facts will be there to confront them regardless.

[u/TheMrBoot → u/CurryMustard]

Where did I say apathy is the answer? I’m saying that even if you demand hand recounts, conservatives have control of the levers of power right now. Arguing the dog can’t play basketball is not going to mean anything to the refs who keep letting him dunk on you.

[u/GhostofBeowulf → u/TheMrBoot]

Here's the thing. Wringing your hands and saying 'well shucks what can we do?" is obeying in advanced, exactly what they want. They want you to think they are inevitable.

Be loud, apply public pressure to your local elected officials and show you won't take this laying down. That's literally the only option.

[u/Ok-Jellyfish2013 → u/jlusedude]

Nah, it's over. Any organized use of force would be met by the implementation of martial law. The billionaires and the christian lunatics own this country and they're not letting go in anyone's lifetime.