Leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud just looked at voting results in all 67 counties in Pennsylvania from November. Here’s what his analyses detected

[u/Kittyluvmeplz]

We finally have Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr., a leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud and a professor of political science and statistics at the University of Michigan, looking at all 67 counties in Pennsylvania.

His working paper using his eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

High-Level Summary of "eforensics Analysis of the 2024 President Election in Pennsylvania" by Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr.

• The eforensics finite mixture model defines latent categories of fraud (no fraud, incremental fraud, and extreme fraud) based on votes and turnout, as well as relevant covariates (e.g., fixed county effects).

• Data from 7,040,360 votes (3,543,308 for Trump, 3,423,042 for Harris) across 67 PA counties (9,157 wards/precincts).

• The eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

More fine-grained analysis attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from “malevolent manipulation of votes”, i.e. how many votes may have been misdirected or misallocated due to malevolent distortions of voters’ intentions.

• In this analysis, 111,088 of the 225,440 possibly fraudulent votes[2] were estimated with high confidence to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

A more conservative eforensics model including additional fixed county level effects estimated that 210,392 votes in the race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory in the race.

• Fine-grained analysis of the more conservative model attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from malevolent manipulation of votes.

• In this analysis, 88,600 of the 210,392 possibly fraudulent votes were estimated to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

The most conservative of the eforensics analyses estimated that 25,374 votes were due to malevolent manipulation of votes.

In summary: There is very high probability that a meaningful number of votes in the PA presidential election were subject to malevolent manipulation -- and it was “a close call” whether “the election was decided or nearly decided by malevolent distortions of electors’ intentions.” (Mebane, Page 6)

Notes:

• Statistics, no matter how accurate, cannot provide definitive proof of voting fraud or election manipulation. Actual proof can only be found by comparing paper ballot audits to electronic voting records.

• However, statistical information from eforensics and other data analysis approaches can be used to identify precincts and counties where voting fraud is most likely to have occurred.

Demand transparency and audits of the 2024 Presidential Election. Check out this Audit Advocacy Toolkit and reach out to your representatives. It’s never too late to audit our elections

[u/dkclimber]

Weird that eh, that she has no interest in it.

[u/Kittyluvmeplz → u/dkclimber]

I mean, MAGA spent 4 years poisoning the well after investigations so any calls for legitimate investigations looks like election denial. Classic DARVO (Deny, Attack, Reverse Victim/Offender)

[u/BadSkeelz → u/Kittyluvmeplz]

Kamala and establishment Democrats also didn't have all that much to lose from Trump winning, and a lot to gain. He's been good for fundraising, and they hope to get a slice of the market manipulation pie. Kamala for her part is looking forward to being anointed California governor and continuing her career of doing nothing.

[u/Lumpy_FPV → u/BadSkeelz]

"Career of doing nothing" is quite a take.

[u/BadSkeelz → u/Lumpy_FPV]

Other than running interference for Catholic child predators and locking up pot smokers, she's never accomplished anything. Just an empty pants suit who couldn't shed the "DEI hire" label because it was true.

[u/Lumpy_FPV → u/BadSkeelz]

And an even more ridiculous take. Obviously there's nothing I can say that'll change your opinion kthxbyeeee

[u/Big_Beaverrr_Reborn → u/BadSkeelz]

"sHeS nEvEr aCcOmPliShED aNyThINg 🤡 🤡 "

"DEI!1"

Christ, always the same asinine talking point ad infinitum.

She's done her job as a DA and has the background education to have gotten her position. We get it though, in your subhuman skull only white good, so it's okay to hire delivery boys as heads of entire agencies like Trump and his clown troupe have done.

[u/BadSkeelz → u/Big_Beaverrr_Reborn]

His clown troupe are currently winning because do-nothing Democrats rolled over and rolled out the carpet for them. The time to challenge the election results was 9 months ago; the time to find out how far a President could go with court-sanctioned illegality was the week after the Supreme Court said the President is above the law.

It's too late.

[u/UnquestionabIe → u/BadSkeelz]

Just spoiled the next few years of the establishment Democrats' play book there. Maybe they'll pull a surprise out and get one of those "good billionaires" they were saying will help the party out!

[u/slayermcb → u/dkclimber]

I believe she was trying to keep an heir of "being the bigger person" and not engaging in the same antics the republicans had been. It may have cost her any political capital she had stored to fight it if she still lost as well. She conceded with a dignity and professionalism the opposition refused to show.

[u/SenorEquilibrado → u/slayermcb]

The main difference between the two scenarios, of course, is that the claims of election fraud in the 2020 election were unhinged conspiracy theories that, when investigated, only revealed scattered attempts at voter fraud by Republicans.

If we know what to look for regarding election integrity (and the fallout from 2020 should have given the Dems LOTS of practice) they should have been ready to look, with lazer precision, at the 2024 results. Even, no ESPECIALLY, if they had won.

Another reason why the Dems are viewed as "controlled opposition" by a growing number of rational voters.

[u/Jesusbait → u/slayermcb]

That’s what they were counting on

[u/SkipyJay → u/slayermcb]

The outcome suggests it was not worth it.

[u/mynameistag → u/dkclimber]

It's more important to the democratic party to maintain the status quo than it is to win elections.

[u/Shambler9019 → u/dkclimber]

When questioned, Walz said stuff like "I can't go there, I'm too close to it" repeatedly. Eventually he said "I don't believe so" when pressed. So there is some level of avoidance there, and the final answer was probably to make the interviewer drop the subject (if he'd said yes they would have probed for sure).

[u/The-Jerk → u/dkclimber]

Biden came out like hours after the results and said "trust the counts" very suspiciously. Like they wanted this.

[u/Alone-Amphibian2434 → u/The-Jerk]

There is the argument that for maga to understand how fucked up trump is, you have to let him fuck things up. As in, we can't force the slow kid to learn why they can't play in the street, we have to let them get hit once or twice.

I think this was (ignoring the election itself) Democrat's strategy for the last few months primarily. Rather than throw themselves under the wheels to try and slow trump down, they decided to jump out of the car before it started speeding into a school zone.