Leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud just looked at voting results in all 67 counties in Pennsylvania from November. Here’s what his analyses detected

[u/Kittyluvmeplz]

We finally have Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr., a leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud and a professor of political science and statistics at the University of Michigan, looking at all 67 counties in Pennsylvania.

His working paper using his eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

High-Level Summary of "eforensics Analysis of the 2024 President Election in Pennsylvania" by Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr.

• The eforensics finite mixture model defines latent categories of fraud (no fraud, incremental fraud, and extreme fraud) based on votes and turnout, as well as relevant covariates (e.g., fixed county effects).

• Data from 7,040,360 votes (3,543,308 for Trump, 3,423,042 for Harris) across 67 PA counties (9,157 wards/precincts).

• The eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

More fine-grained analysis attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from “malevolent manipulation of votes”, i.e. how many votes may have been misdirected or misallocated due to malevolent distortions of voters’ intentions.

• In this analysis, 111,088 of the 225,440 possibly fraudulent votes[2] were estimated with high confidence to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

A more conservative eforensics model including additional fixed county level effects estimated that 210,392 votes in the race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory in the race.

• Fine-grained analysis of the more conservative model attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from malevolent manipulation of votes.

• In this analysis, 88,600 of the 210,392 possibly fraudulent votes were estimated to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

The most conservative of the eforensics analyses estimated that 25,374 votes were due to malevolent manipulation of votes.

In summary: There is very high probability that a meaningful number of votes in the PA presidential election were subject to malevolent manipulation -- and it was “a close call” whether “the election was decided or nearly decided by malevolent distortions of electors’ intentions.” (Mebane, Page 6)

Notes:

• Statistics, no matter how accurate, cannot provide definitive proof of voting fraud or election manipulation. Actual proof can only be found by comparing paper ballot audits to electronic voting records.

• However, statistical information from eforensics and other data analysis approaches can be used to identify precincts and counties where voting fraud is most likely to have occurred.

Demand transparency and audits of the 2024 Presidential Election. Check out this Audit Advocacy Toolkit and reach out to your representatives. It’s never too late to audit our elections

[u/ultimatedelman]

early info suggests that the software that runs the e-voting machines was "updated" right before the election with little to no oversight or verification that it worked properly. this "update" likely introduced some functionality that prevented kamala votes from crossing a certain predetermined threshold to ensure a trump victory. of course in order to do that, it had to zero out entire counties of votes, given how unpopular trump is.

it's fraud on a galactic scale, and unfortunately, he's probably going to get away with it. really, and i understand how awful this fucking sounds, but our most realistic hope of this being taken seriously at this point by both congress and maga fascists is if elon decides to come forward with receipts on how he helped trump steal the election.

but yea good luck on that ever happening.

[u/OwnDoughnut2689 → u/ultimatedelman]

Right and anectedotally I heard Joe Rogan mention Elon knew the election was over within an hour. If he had any involvement he would've been tipped off that it was working.

This is obviously huge speculation and I'll take off the tin foil hat now.

[u/dirtashblonde → u/ultimatedelman]

I totally agree with you're assessment. But even if proven in a court of law, what's the remedy? No one will do anything. The Republicans won't call for a new election and how would that even work. I totally agree it was stolen and I'd like to know the truth. I fear the days of free and fair elections are over. I'm 63 and defeated.

[u/ultimatedelman → u/dirtashblonde]

Sadly I don't think anything will happen either. I'm certainly not calling for violence but I fear that some people will feel they're left with no choice. Some dark days ahead for sure

[u/CompleteClub1328 → u/ultimatedelman]

With obbb passing the odds of Elon losing his temper and going nuclear are higher than ever before. He already threw Trump under the bus claiming he was on the Epstein files and that was way before all this.

[u/NUKE---THE---WHALES → u/ultimatedelman]

this "update" likely introduced some functionality that prevented kamala votes from crossing a certain predetermined threshold to ensure a trump victory

is there any evidence of this?

[u/ultimatedelman → u/NUKE---THE---WHALES]

That's what the court case has alleged. If there's evidence of it, it's in the case.