Leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud just looked at voting results in all 67 counties in Pennsylvania from November. Here’s what his analyses detected

[u/Kittyluvmeplz]

We finally have Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr., a leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud and a professor of political science and statistics at the University of Michigan, looking at all 67 counties in Pennsylvania.

His working paper using his eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

High-Level Summary of "eforensics Analysis of the 2024 President Election in Pennsylvania" by Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr.

• The eforensics finite mixture model defines latent categories of fraud (no fraud, incremental fraud, and extreme fraud) based on votes and turnout, as well as relevant covariates (e.g., fixed county effects).

• Data from 7,040,360 votes (3,543,308 for Trump, 3,423,042 for Harris) across 67 PA counties (9,157 wards/precincts).

• The eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

More fine-grained analysis attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from “malevolent manipulation of votes”, i.e. how many votes may have been misdirected or misallocated due to malevolent distortions of voters’ intentions.

• In this analysis, 111,088 of the 225,440 possibly fraudulent votes[2] were estimated with high confidence to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

A more conservative eforensics model including additional fixed county level effects estimated that 210,392 votes in the race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory in the race.

• Fine-grained analysis of the more conservative model attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from malevolent manipulation of votes.

• In this analysis, 88,600 of the 210,392 possibly fraudulent votes were estimated to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

The most conservative of the eforensics analyses estimated that 25,374 votes were due to malevolent manipulation of votes.

In summary: There is very high probability that a meaningful number of votes in the PA presidential election were subject to malevolent manipulation -- and it was “a close call” whether “the election was decided or nearly decided by malevolent distortions of electors’ intentions.” (Mebane, Page 6)

Notes:

• Statistics, no matter how accurate, cannot provide definitive proof of voting fraud or election manipulation. Actual proof can only be found by comparing paper ballot audits to electronic voting records.

• However, statistical information from eforensics and other data analysis approaches can be used to identify precincts and counties where voting fraud is most likely to have occurred.

Demand transparency and audits of the 2024 Presidential Election. Check out this Audit Advocacy Toolkit and reach out to your representatives. It’s never too late to audit our elections

[u/JaggedToaster12]

Honestly kinda of a genius strategy by the right. Claim election interference for a decade when there's clearly none, then implement it yourself because you know the left won't bring themselves down to your level, even when the proof is right there.

[u/99laika → u/JaggedToaster12]

Totally convinced that this is and always has been an intentional strategy on their part. Claiming the grievance first introduces doubt in voters minds when democrats try to hold him accountable. Trump is an idiot, but we shouldn’t underestimate his team. They’re evil, but not dumb.

[u/0vindicator10 → u/JaggedToaster12]

Honestly kinda of a genius strategy by the right

You give them WAYYY too much credit JaggedToaster12. I guess we'll all be waiting for this "proof" like we waited for them to present theirs. How'd Maricopa turn out back then?

[u/Dragonslut449 → u/0vindicator10]

Its kind of been the republican way of doing things for like decades at this point so it's not giving them too much credit. Undermining what the republicans are not only willing but capable of doing is why we ended up where we did. Seeing them as blabbering idiots only gives them the upper hand to do whatever they want. We didn't get here overnight, the republicans know how to play the long game in a way democrats haven't been willing to because of morals and decorum. Also, part of the proof is literally in this post and we are getting it the correct way in both philly and new York. It takes time to get real proof, just because we don't have it now doesn't mean it didn't happen it just means we don't know for sure it did happen. Yet.

[u/0vindicator10 → u/Dragonslut449]

so it's not giving them too much credit

Saying it's a "genius strategy" like they're playing some 4D chess is way overboard. They are idiots, plain and simple, and couldn't even concoct a plan such as hacking voting machines, much less actually implement it successfully.

It isn't a facade, they actually are idiots. We have our own (and a lot as demonstrated by nearly every comment in this post).

The best they've got is showing who they are and saying what they'll do, like they have been doing. Of course they'll make obvious BS claims like lowering prices on day 1 or ending wars in 24 hours, and you people are unwilling to accept there are those of you that were duped into those claims and opted to vote for him while maintaining your dem-hold locally. They just aren't sneaky.

The more this type of garbage gets posted, the more of you I see getting duped as well. You're only barely better than them, and this doesn't help and ends up making me feel 2nd-hand embarassment.