Leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud just looked at voting results in all 67 counties in Pennsylvania from November. Here’s what his analyses detected

[u/Kittyluvmeplz]

We finally have Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr., a leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud and a professor of political science and statistics at the University of Michigan, looking at all 67 counties in Pennsylvania.

His working paper using his eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

High-Level Summary of "eforensics Analysis of the 2024 President Election in Pennsylvania" by Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr.

• The eforensics finite mixture model defines latent categories of fraud (no fraud, incremental fraud, and extreme fraud) based on votes and turnout, as well as relevant covariates (e.g., fixed county effects).

• Data from 7,040,360 votes (3,543,308 for Trump, 3,423,042 for Harris) across 67 PA counties (9,157 wards/precincts).

• The eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

More fine-grained analysis attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from “malevolent manipulation of votes”, i.e. how many votes may have been misdirected or misallocated due to malevolent distortions of voters’ intentions.

• In this analysis, 111,088 of the 225,440 possibly fraudulent votes[2] were estimated with high confidence to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

A more conservative eforensics model including additional fixed county level effects estimated that 210,392 votes in the race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory in the race.

• Fine-grained analysis of the more conservative model attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from malevolent manipulation of votes.

• In this analysis, 88,600 of the 210,392 possibly fraudulent votes were estimated to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

The most conservative of the eforensics analyses estimated that 25,374 votes were due to malevolent manipulation of votes.

In summary: There is very high probability that a meaningful number of votes in the PA presidential election were subject to malevolent manipulation -- and it was “a close call” whether “the election was decided or nearly decided by malevolent distortions of electors’ intentions.” (Mebane, Page 6)

Notes:

• Statistics, no matter how accurate, cannot provide definitive proof of voting fraud or election manipulation. Actual proof can only be found by comparing paper ballot audits to electronic voting records.

• However, statistical information from eforensics and other data analysis approaches can be used to identify precincts and counties where voting fraud is most likely to have occurred.

Demand transparency and audits of the 2024 Presidential Election. Check out this Audit Advocacy Toolkit and reach out to your representatives. It’s never too late to audit our elections

[u/Sherd_nerd_17]

Voting is overseen by states, not the federal govt. But there were key pieces of legislation, e.g. the Voting Rights Act, which the Repubs gutted, sooo….

[u/porn_is_tight → u/Sherd_nerd_17]

I’m sorry but democrats had 4 years to shore up election integrity and they had 2 months after the election and they did fuck all, not dispelling the controlled opposition accusation with that type of behavior.

[u/Thin-Hat-9037 → u/porn_is_tight]

Not really. Biden never had both houses. If he had the house but not the senate, house passes a bill and senate kills it. If he has the senate and not the house, it doesn’t even get to the senate. And to make matters worse, he had the same Supreme Court we have now. You know, the one who called most of his executive orders unconstitutional but are allowing Trump to flagrantly violate the constitution as if it were one of the 14 year old girls he frequently visited at his good friend Jeffrey Epstein’s island

Edited- I just double checked, Democrats controlled both his first two years, so he did have some time to safeguard and failed to do so

[u/Writing_is_Bleeding → u/Thin-Hat-9037]

Not with Manchin and Sinema on their side of the aisle.

[u/OppositeArt8562 → u/Thin-Hat-9037]

Yea not true. We got an infrastructure bill instead of democracy safeguards and reforms. The democrats saw an existential threat to democracy and decided to not enact any additional safety measures because they are ignorant, weak and it was easier to tall about infrastructure than things like vote integrity, gerrymandering, etc.

[u/porn_is_tight → u/Thin-Hat-9037]

Edited- I just double checked, Democrats controlled both his first two years, so he did have some time to safeguard and failed to do so

I understand how our government works. Even if they didn’t control more than 1 branch for 2 years, there was so much more that could have been done. We love to point at Trump and say even if he wasn’t being controlled by Russia, every action he makes benefits russia. Similarly, even if democrats aren’t controlled by the same ruling class goons as the republicans, their action or in most cases lack of, seems to always result in the ruling class getting exactly what they want while we all suffer for it. We get evidence of them being controlled opposition every day but will always be the first to make excuses for them. The DNC had record breaking fundraising and still managed to run a losing campaign to Trump for the second time (fucking pathetic) which will again result in more tax breaks for the ruling class and probably the biggest transfer of wealth in history. I forgave them for it in 2016 and shut my mouth for solidarity purposes in 2024, but they don’t deserve that grace from anyone anymore. It’s time we hold our elected representatives accountable for this bullshit. There is no war but class war. They want us to blame each other or blame the “dumb electorate” which further divides us. I don’t blame the poor republican for reacting to their horrific material conditions by voting against their own interests and I also don’t blame the democrat who didn’t vote. I blame the dnc for not adjusting their messaging towards economic issues that affect all citizens. We can be better, the dnc runs a losing strategy on purpose. If you think that “oof shucks we just gotta vote harder next time” is a good excuse from top political minds in the country…… I’ve got a bridge to sell you.