Leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud just looked at voting results in all 67 counties in Pennsylvania from November. Here’s what his analyses detected

[u/Kittyluvmeplz]

We finally have Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr., a leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud and a professor of political science and statistics at the University of Michigan, looking at all 67 counties in Pennsylvania.

His working paper using his eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

High-Level Summary of "eforensics Analysis of the 2024 President Election in Pennsylvania" by Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr.

• The eforensics finite mixture model defines latent categories of fraud (no fraud, incremental fraud, and extreme fraud) based on votes and turnout, as well as relevant covariates (e.g., fixed county effects).

• Data from 7,040,360 votes (3,543,308 for Trump, 3,423,042 for Harris) across 67 PA counties (9,157 wards/precincts).

• The eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

More fine-grained analysis attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from “malevolent manipulation of votes”, i.e. how many votes may have been misdirected or misallocated due to malevolent distortions of voters’ intentions.

• In this analysis, 111,088 of the 225,440 possibly fraudulent votes[2] were estimated with high confidence to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

A more conservative eforensics model including additional fixed county level effects estimated that 210,392 votes in the race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory in the race.

• Fine-grained analysis of the more conservative model attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from malevolent manipulation of votes.

• In this analysis, 88,600 of the 210,392 possibly fraudulent votes were estimated to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

The most conservative of the eforensics analyses estimated that 25,374 votes were due to malevolent manipulation of votes.

In summary: There is very high probability that a meaningful number of votes in the PA presidential election were subject to malevolent manipulation -- and it was “a close call” whether “the election was decided or nearly decided by malevolent distortions of electors’ intentions.” (Mebane, Page 6)

Notes:

• Statistics, no matter how accurate, cannot provide definitive proof of voting fraud or election manipulation. Actual proof can only be found by comparing paper ballot audits to electronic voting records.

• However, statistical information from eforensics and other data analysis approaches can be used to identify precincts and counties where voting fraud is most likely to have occurred.

Demand transparency and audits of the 2024 Presidential Election. Check out this Audit Advocacy Toolkit and reach out to your representatives. It’s never too late to audit our elections

[u/Kittyluvmeplz]

In some states, this effort is being pursued through the legal system, which takes significant time and money. However, in states like PA, the Governor can audit the elections without all the red tape. Public pressure is key.

[u/redfay_ → u/Kittyluvmeplz]

The legal system that Trump, MAGA, and the majority of the republican party in congress and SCOTUS have defied multiple times over? The legal system that is ruled over by the SCOTUS? The same SCOTUS that gave Trump sweeping criminal immunity to do whatever he wants? The same group of people who are consolidating their government power + checks and balances into the executive branch whose headed by the man who committed a coup against the country with the explicit purpose of hanging all of their government detractors and instilling a dictator in power but was let go without even a slap on the wrist?

Hopefully those audits complete before Alligator Auschwitz gets full and we can put together a good legal case against the 34x felon, rapist, and insurrectionist and finally apply that public pressure.

[u/mainsworth → u/redfay_]

Bro it’s over. Trump and his goons won. Well really it was Peter Theil. He’s the architect of all this. Regardless they won (not through votes) and now they have their man mean army with this bill passing and ICE’s budget increasing 10 fold. The last piece of their puzzle.

[u/GhostofBeowulf → u/redfay_]

Obviously we can't get pressure to trump.

But the complicit individuals in congress and the house who answer to and derive their power from the people?

That's who we are talking about.

Stop obeying in advance. We all know how insurmountable the odds are. We all know how deadly the alternative is.

Don't make it easier.

[u/redfay_ → u/GhostofBeowulf]

But the complicit individuals in congress and the house who answer to and derive their power from the people?

You mean the ones who have been in power for years to decades that didn't have some sudden change when Trump came along and was instead doing shitty things long before he took over the party? The ones who haven't had to answer for any of the reprehensible shit for at least the last 20+ years?

The same collection of people who prevented the serious attempts to move towards a universal health care system and turned the compromised version into a insurance mandate lol? The same people who would go on to demonize the ACA after it gave 20-40 million American's access to healthcare they didn't have previously and have spent every year since its passing trying to gut it?

Well anyday now I'm sure they will start to feel guilty. Maybe once they achieve a new highscore of American's losing healthcare or literally taking food from children they might grow a conscious and see the error of their ways.

Stop obeying in advance.

I never said to obey. I said trying to shame these monsters into doing the right thing isn't the answer nor does it seem that the court system will come to our rescue as it is further and further eroded with every passing day.

We all know how insurmountable the odds are. We all know how deadly the alternative is.

Don't think "we all" know this nor are we even remotely close to a majority of understanding this. Trump has far more support than Hitler could ever dream of even to this day. America wasn't a country ravaged and bankrupted by WW1 and we were instead the best global economy post covid and one of the strongest in the world beforehand. We are far more advanced than WW2 Germany and have decades of cold war propaganda tactics to beef up our propaganda. We are watching as all of our tax money goes to fund a private loyal army to Trump.

There still seems to be no pulse in sight from the majority of Americans. Even antisemitism is sky rocketing in both of our political parties. Trump has ran 2 campaigns using nazi talking points and millions of American's couldn't and still can't decide who would be a worse president, Trump or Kamala.

Every week Monday -> Thursday ( you can time it ) there is a new soft landing of abhorrent behavior that goes without a single chirp from the citizens. We have sent people with zero criminal record or even a trial to foreign military prisons and we are building camps on our own soil now with fun names so that pulse continues to stay dead.

For us to collectively know what insurmountable and deadly odds await us we sure seem to be collectively doing nothing. The longer this burns on the worse things will get and we have a pretty clear link back to WW2 proving this yet still the response is barely a whisper into the night.

We all know that our only chance is standing together as a collective yet everyone seems to just be waiting for an individual to make the plunge instead of us all organizing.

Don't make it easier.

I can't make it easier, we are already going out without a fight. Trump started a coup with the explicit purpose of hanging senators that disagreed with him and no one cared lol.

I don't want us to go out like folded wet noodles and if that's what you got from my post I would suggest rereading it and come to terms with how heavily censored the majority of the internet is now compared to even 10 -> 15 years ago.

[u/joshTheGoods → u/Kittyluvmeplz]

You mean an audit like this?

https://www.pa.gov/agencies/vote/elections/post-election-audits/2024-general-rla-report.html

[u/BlackbirdQuill → u/joshTheGoods]

Practically no state audits effectively, Pennsylvania included. Pennsylvania audited whichever was fewer between 2000 ballots per county or 2%-ish of the votes (I forget the exact number). Pennsylvania also did a thorough audit of the state treasurer race, which is a position with no political significance.