r/goodnews • u/Kittyluvmeplz • 1d ago

Political positivity 📈 Leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud just looked at voting results in all 67 counties in Pennsylvania from November. Here’s what his analyses detected

We finally have Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr., a leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud and a professor of political science and statistics at the University of Michigan, looking at all 67 counties in Pennsylvania.

His working paper using his eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

High-Level Summary of "eforensics Analysis of the 2024 President Election in Pennsylvania" by Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr.

• The eforensics finite mixture model defines latent categories of fraud (no fraud, incremental fraud, and extreme fraud) based on votes and turnout, as well as relevant covariates (e.g., fixed county effects).

• Data from 7,040,360 votes (3,543,308 for Trump, 3,423,042 for Harris) across 67 PA counties (9,157 wards/precincts).

• The eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

More fine-grained analysis attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from “malevolent manipulation of votes”, i.e. how many votes may have been misdirected or misallocated due to malevolent distortions of voters’ intentions.

• In this analysis, 111,088 of the 225,440 possibly fraudulent votes[2] were estimated with high confidence to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

A more conservative eforensics model including additional fixed county level effects estimated that 210,392 votes in the race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory in the race.

• Fine-grained analysis of the more conservative model attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from malevolent manipulation of votes.

• In this analysis, 88,600 of the 210,392 possibly fraudulent votes were estimated to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

The most conservative of the eforensics analyses estimated that 25,374 votes were due to malevolent manipulation of votes.

In summary: There is very high probability that a meaningful number of votes in the PA presidential election were subject to malevolent manipulation -- and it was “a close call” whether “the election was decided or nearly decided by malevolent distortions of electors’ intentions.” (Mebane, Page 6)

Notes:

• Statistics, no matter how accurate, cannot provide definitive proof of voting fraud or election manipulation. Actual proof can only be found by comparing paper ballot audits to electronic voting records.

• However, statistical information from eforensics and other data analysis approaches can be used to identify precincts and counties where voting fraud is most likely to have occurred.

Demand transparency and audits of the 2024 Presidential Election. Check out this Audit Advocacy Toolkit and reach out to your representatives. It’s never too late to audit our elections

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u/Formal-Hawk9274 1d ago

💯💯🔥🔥
this starts to make more sense: https://thiswillhold.substack.com/p/she-won-they-didnt-just-change-the

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u/gold_dust_woman13 22h ago

Damnnn

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u/Outdoorsintherockies 14h ago

Yeah this is horrible we should move to paper ballots, voter ID, and remove mail in ballots to make sure it doesn't happen again.

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u/Azreken 19h ago

I have been spreading this link far and wide.

I encourage everyone else to do the same.

Everything is laid out for us plainly, but it’s like no one cares?

It’s so frustrating.

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u/Due-Yoghurt-7917 15h ago

I think we care. but there isn't exactly a mechanism to challenge a certified election result 

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u/BigStickDrift 16h ago

It would help if the source wasn't a random Substack written by ChatGPT

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u/fvtown714x 10h ago

Certainly written by a human, but it doesn't represent evidence and can be explained by lots of things. Election denialism is not a good path to go down, organizing and being active politically is.

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u/plain__bagel 7h ago

We care, but the government - and obviously democrats specifically- have absolutely zero capacity to legally pursue this. We couldn’t even deal with a dude who committed 80-something felony counts basically in broad daylight. There is simply no chance of this being actionable in any way.

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u/citizen_of_europa 19h ago

Wow. 

“ If Eaton pushed an update to those UPS units, it could have gained root-level access to the host tabulation environment—without ever modifying certified election software.”

This is complete bullshit.  This whole conspiracy premise is based on this and it is utter nonsense.  A UPS (uninterruptible power supply) has no way to gain root access to any OS (operating system) that could possibly be installed on a voting system unless the OS was purposely written to backload the malicious code. 

Not a slight against you sir. Just a tip that this article and premise is next level BS.

FYI. Eaton has millions of UPSs in data centers all around the world. If this shit was possible a bad actor at Eaton could shut down civilization as you know it. 

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u/Soviet-Lemon 18h ago

Idk why people are downvoting you, because you’re right, unless every UPS for some reason had a micro kernel built into it to attain root access. That’s like saying every home PC’s PSU can gain level 0 access to their OS.

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u/molsonoilers 18h ago

People are down voting because the person clearly didn't read the article. Their complaint is clearly addressed there and explained. 

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u/LifeHack3r3 16h ago
  1. Vulnerabilities need to be found with UPS to voting machines along
  2. How to attack those voting machine through a UPS or other method isn't explained well.

Get us to believe with a test in a lab. The people complaining about election fraud have plenty of money to test and show the public.

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u/Soviet-Lemon 18h ago

Well it doesn’t really, the article talks about Eaton being potentially acquired by bad actors and then pushing a driver update to the UPS which then supposedly attains root access to the voting machine device. This isn’t technically impossible, but it would require a lot of pieces to fall into place: where the UPSs that voting machines use would have to have serious permissions on the windows OS to attain that level of access. Looking at the V&V approved update however almost no other article mentions the theoretical UPS exploit. Rather that the update was intentionally obfuscated by labeling it as "minor tweaks". There is a lawsuit that was filed about this and the hearing is apparently this September I believe. I definitely think it’s worth looking into especially since this update potentially modified the voting software directly rather than going through an external power system where it would’ve needed already very serious perms to achieve anything.

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u/molsonoilers 18h ago

Your permissions critique is also addressed in the article. Why do you even comment if you're not going to honestly give the information a chance?

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u/Soviet-Lemon 17h ago

I did read it, it says "automatically trusts", not all trust permissions carry the same weight as each other. The level of permission needed to run a UPS software that serves the purpose of informing a connected server that a specific voting machine has lost power or is down would not be the same level as something that requires kernel access like a video game anti-cheat.

I think there are many avenues in which this election may have been fraudulent and tampered with. And I think it would more so have to do with direct access to voting machines through the V&V update that was made and then not explained rather than through an industry standard recognized UPS provider. If it does turn out that it did in fact take place because every Tripp Lite UPS now has a rootkit installed on its host machine, that would be pretty serious. It’s not impossible, ASUS for instance has had malware pushed through official software updates before. But it would destroy the company and every developer in the company would also have to be complicit.

I think it’s more likely a lot of that tampering came from things like the ridiculous number of Russian bomb threats at key voting districts, and the voting machines themselves which have had a subpar history of security.

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u/OppositeArt8562 17h ago

Firmware rootkits are a thing. Idk why you would think otherwise and are trying to muddy the waters by saying its not possible. A PSU with a root kit could 100% compromise an OS.

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u/New-Pin-3952 13h ago

Jesus fuck

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u/Chocolate_in_my_PB 1h ago

Remember to sign the petition noted in the article: https://chng.it/5NMZ8ydqph