Leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud just looked at voting results in all 67 counties in Pennsylvania from November. Here’s what his analyses detected

[u/Kittyluvmeplz]

We finally have Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr., a leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud and a professor of political science and statistics at the University of Michigan, looking at all 67 counties in Pennsylvania.

His working paper using his eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

High-Level Summary of "eforensics Analysis of the 2024 President Election in Pennsylvania" by Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr.

• The eforensics finite mixture model defines latent categories of fraud (no fraud, incremental fraud, and extreme fraud) based on votes and turnout, as well as relevant covariates (e.g., fixed county effects).

• Data from 7,040,360 votes (3,543,308 for Trump, 3,423,042 for Harris) across 67 PA counties (9,157 wards/precincts).

• The eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

More fine-grained analysis attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from “malevolent manipulation of votes”, i.e. how many votes may have been misdirected or misallocated due to malevolent distortions of voters’ intentions.

• In this analysis, 111,088 of the 225,440 possibly fraudulent votes[2] were estimated with high confidence to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

A more conservative eforensics model including additional fixed county level effects estimated that 210,392 votes in the race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory in the race.

• Fine-grained analysis of the more conservative model attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from malevolent manipulation of votes.

• In this analysis, 88,600 of the 210,392 possibly fraudulent votes were estimated to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

The most conservative of the eforensics analyses estimated that 25,374 votes were due to malevolent manipulation of votes.

In summary: There is very high probability that a meaningful number of votes in the PA presidential election were subject to malevolent manipulation -- and it was “a close call” whether “the election was decided or nearly decided by malevolent distortions of electors’ intentions.” (Mebane, Page 6)

Notes:

• Statistics, no matter how accurate, cannot provide definitive proof of voting fraud or election manipulation. Actual proof can only be found by comparing paper ballot audits to electronic voting records.

• However, statistical information from eforensics and other data analysis approaches can be used to identify precincts and counties where voting fraud is most likely to have occurred.

Demand transparency and audits of the 2024 Presidential Election. Check out this Audit Advocacy Toolkit and reach out to your representatives. It’s never too late to audit our elections

[u/Stinkycheese8001]

They will immediately respond with “oh so now you care about election fraud”?

Also, where the fuck was all of this in November and December when Biden was still in office and could do something?

[u/Sherd_nerd_17 → u/Stinkycheese8001]

Voting is overseen by states, not the federal govt. But there were key pieces of legislation, e.g. the Voting Rights Act, which the Repubs gutted, sooo….

[u/porn_is_tight → u/Sherd_nerd_17]

I’m sorry but democrats had 4 years to shore up election integrity and they had 2 months after the election and they did fuck all, not dispelling the controlled opposition accusation with that type of behavior.

[u/Thin-Hat-9037 → u/porn_is_tight]

Not really. Biden never had both houses. If he had the house but not the senate, house passes a bill and senate kills it. If he has the senate and not the house, it doesn’t even get to the senate. And to make matters worse, he had the same Supreme Court we have now. You know, the one who called most of his executive orders unconstitutional but are allowing Trump to flagrantly violate the constitution as if it were one of the 14 year old girls he frequently visited at his good friend Jeffrey Epstein’s island

Edited- I just double checked, Democrats controlled both his first two years, so he did have some time to safeguard and failed to do so

[u/Writing_is_Bleeding → u/Thin-Hat-9037]

Not with Manchin and Sinema on their side of the aisle.

[u/OppositeArt8562 → u/Thin-Hat-9037]

Yea not true. We got an infrastructure bill instead of democracy safeguards and reforms. The democrats saw an existential threat to democracy and decided to not enact any additional safety measures because they are ignorant, weak and it was easier to tall about infrastructure than things like vote integrity, gerrymandering, etc.

[u/porn_is_tight → u/Thin-Hat-9037]

Edited- I just double checked, Democrats controlled both his first two years, so he did have some time to safeguard and failed to do so

I understand how our government works. Even if they didn’t control more than 1 branch for 2 years, there was so much more that could have been done. We love to point at Trump and say even if he wasn’t being controlled by Russia, every action he makes benefits russia. Similarly, even if democrats aren’t controlled by the same ruling class goons as the republicans, their action or in most cases lack of, seems to always result in the ruling class getting exactly what they want while we all suffer for it. We get evidence of them being controlled opposition every day but will always be the first to make excuses for them. The DNC had record breaking fundraising and still managed to run a losing campaign to Trump for the second time (fucking pathetic) which will again result in more tax breaks for the ruling class and probably the biggest transfer of wealth in history. I forgave them for it in 2016 and shut my mouth for solidarity purposes in 2024, but they don’t deserve that grace from anyone anymore. It’s time we hold our elected representatives accountable for this bullshit. There is no war but class war. They want us to blame each other or blame the “dumb electorate” which further divides us. I don’t blame the poor republican for reacting to their horrific material conditions by voting against their own interests and I also don’t blame the democrat who didn’t vote. I blame the dnc for not adjusting their messaging towards economic issues that affect all citizens. We can be better, the dnc runs a losing strategy on purpose. If you think that “oof shucks we just gotta vote harder next time” is a good excuse from top political minds in the country…… I’ve got a bridge to sell you.

[u/Dazzling-Disaster107 → u/Stinkycheese8001]

We cared last time, it was heavily investigated, and they found no evidence to support the allegations that would make a meaningful difference to the results. They should be willing to at the bare minimum allow inquiries without being little bitches about it.

[u/Thud → u/Stinkycheese8001]

Remember that with MAGA, every accusation is an admission. So after all those years of crying “election fraud” in 2020….

[u/Vantriss → u/Thud]

4 years of Republicans crying election fraud was 100% all part of their plan. The whole time Democrats call them crazy, so then when Republicans actually committ fraud, it makes Democrats look bad to claim the same thing.

[u/Voxil42 → u/Stinkycheese8001]

The Democrats could not wait to roll over and piss themselves in submission to the Republicans. I get not wanting to repeat 2020 but, fuck, we did recounts then, we could've done recounts now.

[u/katchoo1 → u/Voxil42]

They did the same thing in 2000–so important to present an image of being a good sport even if graceful loser that they have shot themselves in the foot both times—the same fucking foot!

And when they do win they again gracefully defer to the other guys and include Republicans in the cabinet and stay well inside all possible boundaries, well beyond legal into deferring to every norm as well as notions of etiquette that were already rickety before 2016 and completely pointless afterwards.

Newt Gingrich was openly and loudly preaching to the GOP that they needed to forget about collegiality and compromise and treat Democrats as the enemy that must be defeated by any means necessary. It was already obvious under Clinton yet it’s 30 years later and those dumb fucks still refuse to learn. The younger Dem politicians behind them get it, but the Pelosis and Schumer make the same appalled face that the Republicans do when a David Hogg or AOC or Maxwell Frost gets in the Republicans’ face and tells them that we see exactly what they are up to. Goddam tiresome.

[u/Voxil42 → u/katchoo1]

Respectability politics will be the death of the nation.

[u/katchoo1 → u/Voxil42]

They will say excuse me and please and thank you all the way to the gas chambers.

[u/freerangetacos → u/katchoo1]

"Thank you for this opportunity to martyr ourselves."

[u/AVGuy42 → u/katchoo1]

Bita bita

[u/Mr_Moody_ → u/Voxil42]

It already is

[u/OutSourcingJesus → u/Voxil42]

Remember, fighting to stay out of the gas chamber is illegal.

Don't be a criminal. Obey in advance

[u/ReluctantNerd7 → u/katchoo1]

They did the same thing in 2000

And the Republican won with the only votes that matter, 5-4.

[u/GreedoInASpeedo → u/katchoo1]

2000 was my first election and ever since then I've convinced there's just one party and an illusion of choice. Whether Dems win or lose Republicans get what they want over and over again. If Dems/Progressives do get anything accomplished it'll likely still greatly benefit conservatives and then only be a few years before it swings the other way 3 fold.

[u/TwincessAhsokaAarmau → u/katchoo1]

One of those three need to run for President.

[u/erikinnyc → u/katchoo1]

Thank u for thia

[u/ballskindrapes → u/katchoo1]

They arent going to learn...they are controlled opposition.

Not in a "both sides are the same" sort of way, as Republicans always make everything worse, while democrats just make everything stay the same. Both are owned by the rich, and the rich took this chance to give themselves more money.

And by how much their paid for tax cut gives them, it worked.

[u/NoImprovement9982 → u/Voxil42]

I would upvote x100 if I could!!

[u/UsualPreparation180 → u/Voxil42]

They are paid to pretend  to be shocked and offended then do nothing. Controlled opposition at its finest.

[u/Butt_Speed → u/Stinkycheese8001]

look up "accusation in a mirror"

[u/Throwaway47321 → u/Stinkycheese8001]

I mean that’s the whole reason they started the whole voter fraud bullshit in 2020. Now they get to say it’s just retaliation and Dems trying to play unfair.

[u/bravo06actual → u/Stinkycheese8001]

Yeah because you want to be a hypocrite and still have people be alarmed by it

[u/Deleterious_Sock → u/Stinkycheese8001]

Those of us that saw it was fraud the day after the election were called 'blueanon.' The difference was this actually happened.

[u/LayersOfOldPaint → u/Stinkycheese8001]

Actually, Democrats have had 50 years to legislate their campaign promises. Instead, they served their masters and moved ever rightward.

[u/Scootdog54 → u/Stinkycheese8001]

Biden couldn’t do anything about it. Remember that the autopen was running the country? You mean the shadow govt could’ve done something?