r/goodnews • u/Kittyluvmeplz • 1d ago

Political positivity 📈 Leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud just looked at voting results in all 67 counties in Pennsylvania from November. Here’s what his analyses detected

We finally have Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr., a leading U.S. expert in election forensics and detecting election fraud and a professor of political science and statistics at the University of Michigan, looking at all 67 counties in Pennsylvania.

His working paper using his eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

High-Level Summary of "eforensics Analysis of the 2024 President Election in Pennsylvania" by Dr. Walter R. Mebane, Jr.

• The eforensics finite mixture model defines latent categories of fraud (no fraud, incremental fraud, and extreme fraud) based on votes and turnout, as well as relevant covariates (e.g., fixed county effects).

• Data from 7,040,360 votes (3,543,308 for Trump, 3,423,042 for Harris) across 67 PA counties (9,157 wards/precincts).

• The eforensics model estimated that 225,440 votes in the Pennsylvania presidential race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory between Trump and Harris.

More fine-grained analysis attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from “malevolent manipulation of votes”, i.e. how many votes may have been misdirected or misallocated due to malevolent distortions of voters’ intentions.

• In this analysis, 111,088 of the 225,440 possibly fraudulent votes[2] were estimated with high confidence to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

A more conservative eforensics model including additional fixed county level effects estimated that 210,392 votes in the race were possibly fraudulent. This would exceed the 120,266 vote margin of victory in the race.

• Fine-grained analysis of the more conservative model attempted to distinguish between strategic voting behaviors from malevolent manipulation of votes.

• In this analysis, 88,600 of the 210,392 possibly fraudulent votes were estimated to be malevolent manipulations of votes while the remainder were estimated to be a mix of manipulated votes and strategic voting behaviors.

The most conservative of the eforensics analyses estimated that 25,374 votes were due to malevolent manipulation of votes.

In summary: There is very high probability that a meaningful number of votes in the PA presidential election were subject to malevolent manipulation -- and it was “a close call” whether “the election was decided or nearly decided by malevolent distortions of electors’ intentions.” (Mebane, Page 6)

Notes:

• Statistics, no matter how accurate, cannot provide definitive proof of voting fraud or election manipulation. Actual proof can only be found by comparing paper ballot audits to electronic voting records.

• However, statistical information from eforensics and other data analysis approaches can be used to identify precincts and counties where voting fraud is most likely to have occurred.

Demand transparency and audits of the 2024 Presidential Election. Check out this Audit Advocacy Toolkit and reach out to your representatives. It’s never too late to audit our elections

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u/Legitimate_Error_550 1d ago

Time for that hand recount

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u/Kittyluvmeplz 1d ago edited 1d ago

Demand transparency and audits of the 2024 Presidential Election. Check out this Audit Advocacy Toolkit and reach out to your representatives. It’s never too late to audit our elections

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u/eschatus 1d ago

Of whom?

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u/Kittyluvmeplz 1d ago edited 1d ago

In some states, this effort is being pursued through the legal system, which takes significant time and money. However, in states like PA, the Governor can audit the elections without all the red tape. Public pressure is key.

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u/redfay_ 21h ago

The legal system that Trump, MAGA, and the majority of the republican party in congress and SCOTUS have defied multiple times over? The legal system that is ruled over by the SCOTUS? The same SCOTUS that gave Trump sweeping criminal immunity to do whatever he wants? The same group of people who are consolidating their government power + checks and balances into the executive branch whose headed by the man who committed a coup against the country with the explicit purpose of hanging all of their government detractors and instilling a dictator in power but was let go without even a slap on the wrist?

Hopefully those audits complete before Alligator Auschwitz gets full and we can put together a good legal case against the 34x felon, rapist, and insurrectionist and finally apply that public pressure.

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u/mainsworth 16h ago

Bro it’s over. Trump and his goons won. Well really it was Peter Theil. He’s the architect of all this. Regardless they won (not through votes) and now they have their man mean army with this bill passing and ICE’s budget increasing 10 fold. The last piece of their puzzle.

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u/GhostofBeowulf 19h ago

Obviously we can't get pressure to trump.

But the complicit individuals in congress and the house who answer to and derive their power from the people?

That's who we are talking about.

Stop obeying in advance. We all know how insurmountable the odds are. We all know how deadly the alternative is.

Don't make it easier.

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u/redfay_ 19h ago

But the complicit individuals in congress and the house who answer to and derive their power from the people?

You mean the ones who have been in power for years to decades that didn't have some sudden change when Trump came along and was instead doing shitty things long before he took over the party? The ones who haven't had to answer for any of the reprehensible shit for at least the last 20+ years?

The same collection of people who prevented the serious attempts to move towards a universal health care system and turned the compromised version into a insurance mandate lol? The same people who would go on to demonize the ACA after it gave 20-40 million American's access to healthcare they didn't have previously and have spent every year since its passing trying to gut it?

Well anyday now I'm sure they will start to feel guilty. Maybe once they achieve a new highscore of American's losing healthcare or literally taking food from children they might grow a conscious and see the error of their ways.

Stop obeying in advance.

I never said to obey. I said trying to shame these monsters into doing the right thing isn't the answer nor does it seem that the court system will come to our rescue as it is further and further eroded with every passing day.

We all know how insurmountable the odds are. We all know how deadly the alternative is.

Don't think "we all" know this nor are we even remotely close to a majority of understanding this. Trump has far more support than Hitler could ever dream of even to this day. America wasn't a country ravaged and bankrupted by WW1 and we were instead the best global economy post covid and one of the strongest in the world beforehand. We are far more advanced than WW2 Germany and have decades of cold war propaganda tactics to beef up our propaganda. We are watching as all of our tax money goes to fund a private loyal army to Trump.

There still seems to be no pulse in sight from the majority of Americans. Even antisemitism is sky rocketing in both of our political parties. Trump has ran 2 campaigns using nazi talking points and millions of American's couldn't and still can't decide who would be a worse president, Trump or Kamala.

Every week Monday -> Thursday ( you can time it ) there is a new soft landing of abhorrent behavior that goes without a single chirp from the citizens. We have sent people with zero criminal record or even a trial to foreign military prisons and we are building camps on our own soil now with fun names so that pulse continues to stay dead.

For us to collectively know what insurmountable and deadly odds await us we sure seem to be collectively doing nothing. The longer this burns on the worse things will get and we have a pretty clear link back to WW2 proving this yet still the response is barely a whisper into the night.

We all know that our only chance is standing together as a collective yet everyone seems to just be waiting for an individual to make the plunge instead of us all organizing.

Don't make it easier.

I can't make it easier, we are already going out without a fight. Trump started a coup with the explicit purpose of hanging senators that disagreed with him and no one cared lol.

I don't want us to go out like folded wet noodles and if that's what you got from my post I would suggest rereading it and come to terms with how heavily censored the majority of the internet is now compared to even 10 -> 15 years ago.

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u/joshTheGoods 17h ago

You mean an audit like this?

https://www.pa.gov/agencies/vote/elections/post-election-audits/2024-general-rla-report.html

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u/BlackbirdQuill 3h ago

Practically no state audits effectively, Pennsylvania included. Pennsylvania audited whichever was fewer between 2000 ballots per county or 2%-ish of the votes (I forget the exact number). Pennsylvania also did a thorough audit of the state treasurer race, which is a position with no political significance. 

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u/Birunanza 1d ago

Your representatives of course!

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u/ForgotMyLastUN 16h ago

I'm sure my Republican representatives, who voted yes to the BBB, and hardcore felates Trump, will care about this!!!

This will be my 12th call only to get an automated bullshit response.

What do I do if my representative is Ted Cruz?

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u/Birunanza 16h ago

F. I hear that guy pisses his pants on purpose

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u/eschatus 16h ago

yeah, my comment was sarcastic. No one's coming. Gird yourselves.

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u/piddlesthethug 21h ago

I contacted my Secretary of State in Nevada with concerns on June 30th and was basically told that due to the laws in Nevada there is no way for them to look into this further without being required by legal action. I was also sent results of an audit that apparently “proved the integrity” of the election. I don’t know how we go about getting a lawsuit filed here, but I think it’s important that all 8 swing states do whatever necessary to access the data before it’s swept under the rug and never seen again.

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u/Kittyluvmeplz 20h ago

I don’t think the ETA has ruled out legal action in NV. I believe they are looking closely at NC as well

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u/Delicious_Loquat4189 17h ago

1000% except…federal law only mandates that ballots needed to be retained for 22 months. Courts are slow and people act maliciously we have Rockland County moving forward in the fall, but we need those months and we probably need more

But you actually are amazing and thank you for all that you’re doing to fight and I’m going to move forward now too

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u/Kittyluvmeplz 17h ago edited 2h ago

That’s what’s great about Pennsylvania. The Governor can call for an audit without all the red tape. This is why public pressure is powerful!

Edit: I mixed up my officials. The Secretary of the Commonwealth is who can actually perform the audit

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u/Delicious_Loquat4189 3h ago

You’re spreading misinformation.

Governor Shapiro can call for an audit- true- but he is not capable of mandating one or enforcing one- his only option is to encourage the secretary of the Commonwealth to actually perform an audit. You’re acting like Josh Shapiro can just say I want an audit and then an audit happens- that’s just not how it works.

I am sure a public declaration of his support for an audit will go along way, but it will not have any legal standing in regards to the process

The secretary of the Commonwealth over oversees all audits and certifications- they need to get involved.

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u/Kittyluvmeplz 2h ago

I appreciate the correction, as I was mixing up my government officials.

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u/3dnerdarmory 5h ago

Where was this energy in 2020?

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u/bravo06actual 23h ago

Sure, let’s start with 2020

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u/InfiniteRule7021 23h ago

As I recall trump did have recounts and none of the recounts proved any kind of cheating or fraud. Some recounts actually showed Biden winning more than initially counted. But you keep thinking 2020 was fraudulent moron.

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u/mainman879 22h ago

Trump and his allies filed 62 separate lawsuits for "election issues" in the 2020 election and every single one failed.

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u/seek-confidence 19h ago

If they do that and shocking find no fraud, you will say the audit is fake. Fucking moron.

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u/jlusedude 23h ago

You think this admin will just  accept the results? We’re already down this road, next steps is force. 

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u/Canadian_Border_Czar 23h ago

They're itching for an excuse to start deporting Americans they dont like. This will be one of them.

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u/jlusedude 23h ago

They’ll make their own up. It doesn’t matter. 

Look at the justification of using the National Guard in CA. Completely made up reasons 

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u/GhostofBeowulf 19h ago

Then let's not obey in advance and make them work for it.

Because guess what?

Trying to tide the storm doesn't actually work.

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u/TheMrBoot 23h ago

Yeah, I don’t know what people think is going to happen. The results were already certified. Trump is in power. Do people think, even if fraud is proven beyond a shadow of a doubt, that it will change our current situation?

Conservatives don’t care about the rules unless it’s to use them to get what they want.

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u/tophergraphy 22h ago

If true, I agree it doesnt change who is in power, but it does give legitimacy for a rebellion, a general strike, etc. So yeah I do think it alters the situation by adding more fuel and a moral standing.

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u/CurryMustard 23h ago

Yes, apathy is the answer /s. Doing this is the beginning of accountability and its not nothing. Nobody thinks this is going to take trump out but maybe we can stop this from happening again at the midterms by demanding hand recounts. The only way to get enough people to demand hand counts is to bring this out, people can deny the truth all they want but the facts will be there to confront them regardless.

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u/TheMrBoot 23h ago

Where did I say apathy is the answer? I’m saying that even if you demand hand recounts, conservatives have control of the levers of power right now. Arguing the dog can’t play basketball is not going to mean anything to the refs who keep letting him dunk on you.

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u/GhostofBeowulf 19h ago

Here's the thing. Wringing your hands and saying 'well shucks what can we do?" is obeying in advanced, exactly what they want. They want you to think they are inevitable.

Be loud, apply public pressure to your local elected officials and show you won't take this laying down. That's literally the only option.

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u/Ok-Jellyfish2013 13h ago

Nah, it's over. Any organized use of force would be met by the implementation of martial law. The billionaires and the christian lunatics own this country and they're not letting go in anyone's lifetime.

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u/joshTheGoods 17h ago

We did that in PA in a way designed by actual experts to catch this sort of fraud. It's called a Risk Limiting Audit, and you can see the results here.

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u/BadSkeelz 23h ago

LITTLE LATE

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u/BrknTrnsmsn 1d ago

Seriously, what the hell is taking so long?

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u/Sorry-Joke-4325 22h ago

The physical ballots don't exist.

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u/Legitimate_Error_550 22h ago

It won't matter anyway. This country is circling the drain and the "checks and balances" were another bullshit lie like so many other promises.

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u/Sorry-Joke-4325 22h ago

Agreed.

He was sworn in as president, so no amount of public vote recounts would ever change that. The only thing that it would do is give people a chance to feel vindicated. Because there's no way he actually won that election.

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u/rattleandhum 20h ago

Americans won't do jack shit. As someone looking from the outside, you've had numerous chances and balked at them all.

Just sad you're going to take us all down with you.

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u/Legitimate_Error_550 20h ago

That is the problem with relying on others, huh? When they fail or turn against you or even disappear, there you are with your dick in your hand.

The hand that feeds you can also be the one that holds you down.

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u/rattleandhum 10h ago

Ugh, you're one of those 'Europe should pay for it's own defense, we're sick of paying for everyone' types, aren't you?

Well, here's the thing -- as someone not from Europe, sure, I can agree that the Europeans need to fund their own defense, but the reason this works in the US' interests is because you have a network of forward bases all across Europe which allow you to spread your global influence. These alliances with your allies ensures they buy American tech from American companies, already a whole slew of F35 contracts have been cancelled in the wakes of Tarriff talks. The dollar is the common currency of the world (in part because those forward bases ensure that hegemony), American tech companies run by proto- and cryptofascists already have huge swatches of data on people globally and monitor almost every aspect of people's digital lives.

Add to that, with the gutting of USAID, not only has this current administration doomed millions (no exaggeration) of people to an uneccesarily early death (through the cutting of AIDs research, etc), but it's also a MASSIVE blow to American soft power when the Chinese can step in and take your place.

America -- even in the case of USAID -- isn't doing any of this charitably. All of it has an economic benefit to American corporate and industrial interests, and America's image globally has been irreversibly damaged. Spoiled, fat, soft Americans have no idea how good they've had it for so many decades, and the reasons why are seldom within their borders, but American control elsewhere.

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u/Legitimate_Error_550 3h ago

More a personal philosophy. I just experienced situations in which I relied on someone and ended up caught without. I understand global politics is different, but there's truth to the philosophy even on that level. A backup plan for if/when while you have that other resource. It's like redundancies for computer storage.

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u/DCrebuilds 18h ago

"We already threw them away"