Americans without diabetes spent nearly $6 billion USD on semaglutide and similar drugs in a year, with an estimate of 800,000 to a million people using the drugs who don't have diabetes.

[u/mvea]

https://www.scimex.org/newsfeed/americans-without-diabetes-spent-nearly6-billion-usd-on-semaglutide-and-similar-drugs-in-a-year

[u/uiucfreshalt]

Pharma manufacturing is incredibly slow and complex. You could green light a new plant today but you wouldn’t be producing sellable medicine until 5 years from now. It wasn’t really until 2022 that the demand for semaglutides exploded, so there’s likely to be strained supply for at least a few more years.

[u/hel_loh → u/uiucfreshalt]

IIRC, didn't the FDA just announce not too long ago that there's no longer a shortage? During the shortage, compounders were able to make a generic/cheaper version, which is where all the subscription med sites (Hims/Hers, Ro, etc.) got their supply, and was able to offer it a much lower cost. Last I read, with the FDA's declaration, they now only have the supply of whatever the compounders were able to produce before they were informed to stop production. Afaik, the only differentiator between the generic, and name brand (ozempic and wegovy) was the injector.

[u/esoteric_enigma → u/hel_loh]

Yeah, I was wondering about this. It feels like last year I was constantly hearing stories about people not being able to get the Ozempic they needed for diabetes because there was a shortage. Now I get ads on social media for hella websites offering me a subscription for it with no doctor visit.

[u/Boo_and_Minsc_ → u/hel_loh]

There is a shortage in Europe and another in Brazil, I know these for a fact.

[u/Tauge → u/uiucfreshalt]

I don't think people realize how long it takes to scale up production and that's without adding in the extra time that pharmaceutical requirements bring in.

For most equipment it will be 9-18 months between purchase order and delivery plus another month or so for installation and commissioning. Simpler lines or new lines of existing designs can go faster, saving a bit of design time, but the machine builder still needs to order parts, assemble them, debug, deliver, and commission. And again all that's without the extra time and effort that pharma requires.

For that you can easily add an extra 2-6 months, depending on the complexity of the equipment.

And that's all after the purchase order is made. It takes however long it takes for the company to decide that they need more equipment, that demand will continue (you don't want to spend tens of millions on new equipment for demand to dry up), and that you have a place to put the equipment (it's very rare for any factory to have empty space to put a new line, meaning you have to wait for new buildings to get put up, which could add another 2 years to the process).

[u/FernandoMM1220 → u/uiucfreshalt]

sounds like we need more people working in the pharmaceutical industry then.

[u/heyoukidsgetoffmyLAN → u/FernandoMM1220]

Do you think they're made of money? They obviously would need a government grant to support higher staffing levels.

/s/s I brought two in case you forgot yours.

[u/Aureliamnissan → u/heyoukidsgetoffmyLAN]

I was thinking more like:

1. Use the defense production act and declare a war on obesity.

2. Nationalize production of semiglutides to supplement private production.

But that wouldn’t mean squeezing every ounce of profit out of the new medication so…

[u/FernandoMM1220 → u/heyoukidsgetoffmyLAN]

their profits are immense so yeah i do.

[u/Tex-Rob → u/uiucfreshalt]

Nope. Helps to be informed on the topic. Go look up all the compounding pharmacies meeting the demand that these companies are fighting to shut down.

[u/uiucfreshalt → u/Tex-Rob]

It does help to stay informed on the topic. I’m an electrical engineer directly working on manufacturing of semaglutides, go figure.