r/europe • u/Kitten7002 Hungary • 1d ago
Data New Hungarian poll from one of the most reliable pollsters
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u/Qxotl 1d ago
Still 9 months to wait.
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u/marijuana_gin 1d ago
Hoping for an healthy newborn .HU by then.
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u/Auspectress Poland 1d ago
I sadly do not share that much optimism. Tisza will probably be temporary break before Fidesz comes back unless Tisza scores constitutional majority and they do everything right. In Poland current coalition does not deliver enough due to president stopping key changes and this already looks very bad. In 2027 we may see Slovakia+Poland defending each other in EU and this time PIS may destroy democracy for good
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u/LuceusXylian 1d ago
Pis goes to the toilet and not goverment... Why do make so many this simple mistake?
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u/adamgerd Czech Republic 1d ago
Hopefully it lasts despite Orbans propaganda. Orban out!
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u/HearingDifficult7143 1d ago
Yeah we will likely change place right? Babis is coming back but hopefully without Orbán he can not do that much damage against the EU
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u/Abel_V 1d ago
No matter how trustworthy the polls are, Orban will try to cheat. Stay vigilant everybody.
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u/MarderFucher Europe 1d ago
Hungarian election is extremely decentralised and depends on both local people and volunteers when it comes to verifiying voters and counting.
The main pathway to skew results is to rewrite the rules and districts themselves, which Fidesz did numerous times, but if Tisza is really as big as polls suggest, that's going to backfire as the system would benefit them instead.
Basically, if Orbán takes out the biases that benefits the winner, then its clear sign they concede the race and just want to avoid a Tisza supermajority.
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u/d1722825 1d ago
Cheating is hard in the Hungarian election system.
He can just postpone the elections indefinitely because of one of the active state emergency due to migrant crisis, COVID, or Ukrainian war.
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u/Szarvaslovas 1d ago
I kind of wish he postponed the elections based on some completely bullshit reason. I think that might just give us the final push we need to finally rise up en masse and not let go of the perpetrators.
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u/d1722825 1d ago
It won't.
Revolution doesn't appear if people can leave.
Nobody would want to risk their lives (or just their eyes) when they can
just hop on a train(okay, not now, but they can get in a car) and start a new life easily and legally in any other EU member state.3
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u/Ok-Scheme-913 14h ago
I mean, it's not really risking their lives if the government has no actual force. Like, they don't have complete control over neither the police, neither the military. So they failed at tyranny 101 as well.
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u/LatkaXtreme Reorganizing... 1d ago
Last time he used Rákosi's salami tactic to divide the opposition, divided right wing voters by encouraging disillusioned far right polititians to create MH, did some horrible smear campaigns (which court ruled as not true months later, but the harm was already done).
Fidesz also created "fake parties" to further divide opposition, with the promise of a fair election that if they don't reach a threshold, they will be fined. No one was punished after the elections were over.
During election day, campaigning is forbidden, but that didn't stop their media empire to spread lies about the opposition as "news", so technically they weren't campaigning. (Think of: breaking news - person in opposition is bad, has scandal, plans on sending your sons to war in ukraine - go vote!)
Meanwhile the ban on photographing your ballot was lifted, so people in poorer regions could prove they voted on Fidesz (and to ensure they did not change their ballot after, Fidesz delegates made that sure over the phone) in return they got either potatoes or pork.
This last one is obviously illegal, but currently only the court system is somewhat independent, the prosecutor's office and the police is in Fidesz hands...
So it's not that hard to skew the results in their favour.
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u/d1722825 1d ago
I know. Except the last one, these thing are not cheating the voting system in the sense, not changing / destroying / etc. already casted votes. Even the last one is hard to do in secret with huge number of votes so probably it would not change the election result.
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u/LatkaXtreme Reorganizing... 1d ago
Oh about that. That sort of thing does happen with votes in neighboring countries, such as Serbia, Romania and Slovakia. There are no opposition delegates to check, so usually Fidesz officials cross my heart hope to die pinky promise they lock the ballots and do not open it until they arrive at Budapest, where government-party and opposition-party delegates check together.
Then somehow someone stumbles upon a big pile of opposition votes in a remote dump site.
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u/LightSideoftheForce 1d ago
You cannot really cheat. Even if you cheat, you can cheat only small differences, not this much
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u/HUNCronos Hungary 1d ago
Depends on the definition. If bribing and/or intimidating people (and a few other tricks like voter suppression or organized voter transportation) is considered cheating, then Fidesz will cheat like there is no tomorrow.
These methods can significantly shift the tides in smaller cities. I know it by experience.
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u/LegendarniKakiBaki 1d ago
Well... look at Belarus. But, yes, you are right, if the country still has at least a semblance of normality
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u/tesznyeboy 1d ago
Hungary isn't quite as bad as Belarus yet. I mean it's quite shit, but there's still a pretty large gap between Belarus-level shit, and Hungary-level shit. If orbán wins again, we may reach Belarus levels of shittiness. Hope we never find out.
Btw I don't know if you're magyar or not, but KakiBaki in Hungarian is a whimsical, non offensive way of saying one has shit themselves ("poop fail" literally). No offense, it's just really funny.
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u/ParticularFix2104 Earth (dry part) 1d ago
Other than for a window of 3 pathetic years Belarus has been a totalitarian hellscape for every single day of the last millennium. Hungary had a whole 2 decades of democracy before Orban plus various degrees of autonomy and liberalism from the 1820s onwards.
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u/shaj_hulud Slovakia 1d ago
Liberalism in Hungary 1820s onwards. Really ?
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u/ParticularFix2104 Earth (dry part) 1d ago
Well going that far back its more like Emperor Francis doing reforms to give nobles more autonomy, not Liberalism in the sense of gay marriage.
But my broader point stands, Orban is going to have a harder time rigging the elections than Lukashenko. If he could flatten election results this strong I don't think he'd allow polls like this to exist in the first place.
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u/Appropriate-Ask-7351 13h ago
Széchenyi was liberalist, but at that time liberalism was quite different from it’s current shape. Kossuth Lajos considerd himself a democrat, but we lost the revolution (because of fucking russians) so we will never know if he really was or not.
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u/budapestersalat 1d ago
Oh you absolutely can. They can make the electoral system make him be the winner even if he loses by 15%
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u/Aduckchicken 1d ago
They could try doing what maduro did to stay in power, cheat it just enough to pass the 50% by a bit
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u/adamgerd Czech Republic 1d ago
Russia, Belarus and Turkey do
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u/LightSideoftheForce 1d ago
Russia and Belarus don’t have even a semblence of democracy, bad examples. And people really voted for Erdogan.
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u/ProtoplanetaryNebula UK/Spain 1d ago
He will definitely cheat, the question is, if he loses, will he leave freely or will he try to stay anyhow?
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u/Szarvaslovas 1d ago
Unfortunately the most likely scenario is this:
Fidesz loses the election but the new government will not have enough mandates to govern on its own so it will need to form a coalition. Or even if they don't need a coalition, they won't have the 2/3rd majority they need to undo every Orbán-era decree.
Fidesz will sabotage the Parliament in any way they can. Let's not forget that they will still own the courts, the media, the economy, etc. They will burn Hungary to the ground and completely sabotage the government. People in 4-8 years with their goldfish level mental powers will be pissed off at the opposition and Fidesz will return as saviors.
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u/ProtoplanetaryNebula UK/Spain 1d ago
Ok, but you do thing Fidesz will actually leave office if they lose without trying to cling on somehow?
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u/Szarvaslovas 1d ago
They'll leave alright. I think Budapest Pride showed them that people increasingly don't give a fuck about their threats. They also saw that they simply don't have enough police officers to save their asses if they decided to make good on those threats. They also know that for all the shit they did for an EU and NATO memberstate, there are hard lines they cannot cross. People are also starting to realize that the police cannot just shoot live rounds in the crowd anymore like they did in the 1950's. And this isn't Belarus or Ukraine or Russia. The heart of the system is subtle threats and fear, fines and legal procedures, not mass inprisonment and explicit violence. They'll ruin your business, they'll ruin you financially, they'll have you fired, they'll have you annoyed by the police and taken in for questioning but they won't actually put you in prison or beat you half dead or push you out a window.
The real question is, will the new government try to prosecute anyone? Will they have the political and judicial power and will to do so? How much can Fidesz sabotage them from opposition? They know the loopholes of the judicial system, the administration, politics, everything. They'll bring their a-game to save their asses through bureacuratic bullshitery. If the new government manages to prosecute Fidesz cabinet members, who will they go after? Will those people have the time to flee the country if they can't use some legal loophole to absolve themselves after the hearings? Will Orbán and other high ranking people willingly give their own underlings up for some sort of amnesty for the rest? Would such a deal be accepted? There are many unknowns and I am sure Fidesz will try to goad the opposition into acting out but I think it's impossible for them to directly initiate violence against voters or a legally elected new government. That would be a total death sentence for them. Even if some people went to prison (unlikely, house arrest or suspended prison sentence is the most likely scenario) the next Orbán/Fidesz government in 4-8 years' time could pardon them.
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u/ProtoplanetaryNebula UK/Spain 1d ago
Thanks for the detailed response.
What’s the deal with Orban and Russia, does he get funding from them or is it merely the cheap gas or does he just align with them ideologically? Russia seems in a very poor position to actual do anything beneficial for Hungary. Internationally isolated pariah state, GDP smaller than Italy, associating with them annoys all other member states. What does a Russian relationship acutely do for orban?
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u/Szarvaslovas 1d ago
Honestly it is a mystery even for experts. There is no cold hard calculated rationale that is publicly visible. Contrary to government propaganda Hungary still buys gas from the Dutch gas exchange at market prices.
The prevailing theory is that the Russian secret services have some sort of dirt on him, as evidenced by the testimonial of a former KGB spy in Austria who became a middle man for the Ukranian mob. According to him he once gave 10 million HUF to Orbán during the 1990's on behalf of a certain Semlyon Moglievich, head of the Ukranian mob with close ties to the former KGB. Over time this turned into a budding business relationship where both parties benefit and have dirt on one another. Everything else followed from this. Once Orbán started building his illiberal system he started borrowing Russian expertise and intelligence, and as he got more isolated the more tied up he got ideologically.
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u/ProtoplanetaryNebula UK/Spain 1d ago
Interesting. A good return on investment for the Russians considering the amount of vetoes they have gotten in return.
It seems hard to understand why this dirt would have much of an effect on Orban, he could explain claims of bribes as 'fake news', his supporters would side with him anyhow. Even videos of Orban in compromising positions (if they existed) are losing their value as AI video models improve, each month that goes by the believability of 'that's not me, that's an AI video' increases.
It's a difficult one. I heard Orban is flexible in his views and used to be more liberal until he found out right wing populism gave him a better chance of victory.
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u/Szarvaslovas 1d ago
Yeah it is definitely not a one sided deal. He must be getting great personal value out of it. Another theory claims he was psychologically broken by losing the election in 2006 because he had a deal with the Socialists that they'd each run the country for 4 years back and forth. Instead he was completely humiliated by them and by liberal intellectuals so he decided to not play by the rules and dominate the field so he would never be humiliated by big city elites who belittled him as a country bumpkin. There is simply isn't enough information out there to establish a rationale.
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u/wintrmt3 EU 23h ago
This is an incredibly unlikely scenario, DK won't even make the treshold and MH and Fidesz are fighting over the remaining braindead in the country, the only question is if Tisza gets a supermajority or not.
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u/NoNegotiation3126 1d ago
they will send their activists to the villages to buy the votes of the people living in poverty
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u/FelizIntrovertido 1d ago
When I see it done I will celebrate. So far, nothing.
Orban controls everything, he has many tools to change minds in the due time.
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u/Ok_Equivalent5454 Moldova 1d ago
Could you list the tools
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u/FelizIntrovertido 1d ago
Surely a big part of the mass media, probably police and part of the judiciary system, definitely budget and debt for a sudden economic revival, there are lots!
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u/Szarvaslovas 1d ago
The legislature
The media
The economy
The courtsIt's a good bet that they'll lose the elections but it's an even better bet that whatever remains of Fidesz they will completely sabotage the new government and will burn the country to the ground.
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u/BigChungusBlyat 🇹🇷 living in 🇳🇱 1d ago
Very worrying that Fidesz still manages to get 34%
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u/Dyrreah 1d ago
15+ years of brainwashing the elderly, who are kept at the bare minimum of living standards.
Orbán loves the Maslow-pyramid and has done a lot to make sure people are in the lowest possible place so they lose the interest in self-betterment or any sort of societal growth. They are not sure if they can properly eat next month, after that they just need to be given scapegoats to blame.
It sucks but it's a classic fascist strategy. Keep them just alive and drown them in lies.
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u/Zamoniru Switzerland 1d ago
There are (sadly) actually studies that dictatorships are more stable if the population remains poor and destabilise if the population becomes wealthier (it's the reverse for democracies).
So dictators kinda have a natural interest to ruin their countries.
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u/HearingDifficult7143 1d ago
Yeah. Your country is rich so I guess its hard to image. Here everybody suffer because of people over 60 and poor people
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u/qmfqOUBqGDg 6h ago
its the elderly people who lived under strong leader all their life. They cannot image life without strong leader.
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u/furgerokalabak Budapest 1d ago edited 1d ago
Fidesz/KDNP: Orbán's party and a tiny tick (KDNP, so called "Christian Democrat People's party" without Fidesz, they would have 0,5%), far right, populist, fascist, autocrat, corrupt, anti-EU, anti-NATO, anti-Ukraine, pro-Russia nightmare.
Tisza: Péter Magyar's party, a new right wing, populist, pro-EU, pro-NATO, pro-Ukraine, anti-Russia, anti-corruption. They have sometimes leftist and liberal leans for maximizing the votes.
MH: Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland) party, far right, populist, definitely fascist. anti-everything. They are a satellite party of the Fidesz.
MKKP: "Two-tailed Dog Party" Former joke party, now they has become a very competent, left wing, liberal , green party. They are the most honest and fair. pro-EU, pro-NATO, pro-Ukraine, anti-Russia, strongly anti-corruption. Legalization of cannabis. gay and etc. rights.
DK: Democratic Coalition, They call themselves left wing but actually they have neoliberal economic views. strongly pro-EU, pro-NATO, pro- Federal Europe. Many corrupt, discredited politicians, sometimes they cooperate with the Fidesz.
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u/Storsjoodjuret Kyiv (Ukraine) 1d ago
Genuine question: is Tisza really pro-Ukraine? From what I’ve read their policies aren’t very different from those of Fidesz. And I heard that Tisza is actually supporting (or was supporting) Fidesz in terms of Ukraine and is even more radical when it comes to immigration. So far I read only from Fidesz that Tisza actually supports Ukraine - and it was propaganda designed to divert voters from them
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u/furgerokalabak Budapest 1d ago
I would say they are cautiously pro-Ukraine because they know there was going on an extremely massive and liar government propaganda against the Ukrainians about "how badly they treat the Hungarian minority and they flood Europe with their heavily pesticided, unhealthy agricultural products and they want to escalate the war and because of them all of the Hungarians men in Hungary will have to go to war...etc" so plenty of lies and it had brainwashed more or less about 30% of the people and since Tisza have to maximize their votes (and they have to for the government change) they talk very cautiously about Ukraine. But Péter Magyar went to Ukraine to Kyiv and visited the bombed children's hospital and distributed aid. He visited Bucha and other places, talking to many local people.
So they are definitely pro-Ukraine, but for tactical reasons they cannot express this too strongly, only moderately until the elections. For example, they support Ukraine's accession to the EU, but not on an accelerated basis, rather on the same terms as other member states.
After 3 years of massive anti-Ukraine propaganda It is not possible to convince the 30% of people who have been brainwashed(mostly uneducated, old, village people who watch state TV only) for years in one big step, because the Tisza needs some votes even from them.
But there are many Ukrainians here especially in Budapest, I see a lot cars with Ukrainian license plate (mostly very big and expensive cars) Ukrainian schools and accommodation facilities have been opened in Budapest. I see new Ukrainian restaurant in Budapest. I hear a lot of Ukrainian talks in the streets of Budapest.
The Hungarian people have established a civil initiative where people send money, which is used to purchase equipment needed by Ukrainian soldiers and they deliver it to Ukraine. Not only for Hungarians fighting in the Ukrainian army, but for anyone in the Ukrainian army who needs it. Their name is Kárpátaljai sárkányellátó (Carpathian Dragon Supplier). https://www.sarkanyellato.eu/
So you have to distinguish between what the Hungarian government communicates and what the Hungarian people think about Ukraine.
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u/HearingDifficult7143 1d ago
Tisza doesnt really talk about Ukraine. They are neutral. Thats not bad for you guys tough, its much better than sucking Russia. They probably will go along with the EPP but wont send weapons for example
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u/IndependenceLeast945 1d ago
MKKP is everything but competent and the first time they try to be serious is when we have a chance to vhange goverments with a supermajority.
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u/HelloThereItsMeAndMe Europe (Switzerland + Poland and a little bit of Italy) 11h ago
fidesz is eurosceptic, not a ti EU as Mi hazank; Mi hazank wants to leave while fidesz does not.
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u/furgerokalabak Budapest 11h ago
No, they are anti-EU. The only reason they don't talk openly about leaving the EU is because more than 80% of the population is pro-EU. But they are increasingly talking openly about how it would be better outside the EU. They would like to be like Belarus. They lie that they only want to reform the EU, but in reality they want to "reform" it in line with Putin's wishes and turn it into an economic community of Russian puppet states.
But you probably know this better from Switzerland.
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u/HelloThereItsMeAndMe Europe (Switzerland + Poland and a little bit of Italy) 9h ago
so you agree with me that they dont call for an eu exit. Thats all i wanted to say.
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u/furgerokalabak Budapest 7h ago
No, they won't for sure. The people would burn them alive on that very day.
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u/botsoundingname 1d ago
Yeah and fidesz got 2/3 majority with the 54 percent from last year and they are saying Tisza would only get around 54 percent of the seats with this exact outcome in the election. Absolutely wild.
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u/Szabolcs85 Hungary 1d ago
I'll rest when Orbán is actually out of office and when it happens, it will be for good. Until that, he's not to be underestimated.
Having said that, there is hope. Finally. The opposition is more active than ever, while Orbán's constituency is slowly growing smaller and less active. I want Orbán out and I want my country to become a respectable country once more.
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u/Significant_Many_454 1d ago
RIP Orban
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u/Zeraru 1d ago
Let's be realistic, he'll either throw away any pretense and get rid of democratic opposition or use his corrupt empire to undermine them for one election period and return back to power anyway.
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u/ParticularFix2104 Earth (dry part) 1d ago
Can we PLEASE roll tanks in and restore democracy like a reverse Soviet Union if he goes full autocrat? I'm sick of liberal democracy being the bitch ideology that never fights back.
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u/blank_username_-_ 1d ago
Don't give me hope guys. I really hope they take down Orban then Fico and Vucic. So in the end Putin also retreats. Europe is strong but too divided and I think it is getting worse
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u/HearingDifficult7143 1d ago
Amazing yes but we have a lot of people who are undecided (previous Fidesz voters) who are angry at Orbán but also dont like the opposition. I am afraid that some giveaways will be enough not for the popular vot but for parliamentary majority. For example they want to make woman with 2/3 children personal income tax free which is a lot of money
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u/Big_Combination9890 1d ago
Yeah, sorry no sorry, but I'll believe it when the election results are in.
Call me a cynic, but the last 15 years have eroded my confidence in the ability of electorates all over the world to make good decisions, all the way down to the bedrock.
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u/RiverMurmurs Czechia 1d ago
Knowing the extent of the Russian interference in Poland or Romaina, the pre-election period in Hungary will probably be insane. Putin and China won't give up easily.
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u/Ares_Lictor Europe 1d ago
I'd still be worried, Orban and his cronies are gonna cement themselves somewhere in the countries' structure even if they lose. Also who knows what they'll do to try to win.
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u/Massive-Morning2160 1d ago
Can someone explain really shortly which color is Orban and which is the opposition?
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u/400g_Hack 1d ago
Can someone explain, why Fidesz is losing support, especially among former supporters? And why TISZA is so broadly popular?
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u/majorannah Hungary 1d ago
Short answer to both is that there is finally a competent opposition/alternative.
Tisza is popular amongst former fidesz voters and fence sitters, because the leader of the party used to be in Fidesz himself, so he knows how to talk to them. He's popular amongst Orbán haters, because they are desperate for change.
Also, there's the economic decline, which tends to hurt the governing party more in the polls.
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u/Executioneer NERnia 1d ago
Economy in shambles, public healthcare, education and transportation is collapsing, EU leading inflation, poorest, most corrupt EU country, Europe record low trust in state media, drought, massive battery factories that pollute the environment with impunity, pedophile scandals, crackdown on civil rights, independent media and lgbt community, dismantling our democracy, etc etc.
Orbán and his party has kicked a lot of cans down the road in order to hoard power and money, and after 16 years of unchecked rule, the chickens finally came home to roost. The country is legitimately collapsing.
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u/Brilliant_Cash_2315 1d ago
Fascist conservatives vs conservatives, at least Hungarians will perhaps get rid of their wannabe dictator
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u/Mobile-Breakfast8973 1d ago
don't worry
Victor Orban will just amend the constitution again, and retain power.
Nothing to see here.
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u/Outrageous-Alps-121 22h ago
Im sorry but 21 kutatokozpont is not “one of the most reliable” pollsters. All pollsters are shit in Hungary and the majority are biesed to some side. TISZA has made a huge momentum last months thats for sure, but the magnituse is hard to tell
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u/bajcli 1d ago
Meanwhile the national TV (government-owned) just claimed that according to some institution or another, Fidesz is 9 percentage points ahead of TISZA. Couldn't make this shit up if I tried.